Live Hog Futures Main Contract Hits New Low, Spot Price Down 30.6% Year-over-Year

China Securities Journal Reporter Zhao Liyun

On March 19, the domestic futures market for live pigs saw another decline. As of the close that day, the live pig contract 2605 was quoted at 10,335 yuan/ton, with a intraday low of 10,250 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since listing.

Live pig spot prices down 30.6% year-on-year

In the spot market, according to SouPig.com data, on March 18, the average price for lean pigs nationwide was 10.07 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day’s 10.04 yuan/kg, a daily increase of 0.3%. Compared to the same period last year at 14.51 yuan/kg, it has fallen by 4.44 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 30.6%.

Shanghai Ganglian Data shows that since 2026, live pig prices have generally experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, with a continued downward trend. In mid to early January, prices briefly surged to 13.15 yuan/kg. After the Spring Festival, due to oversupply and weak demand, prices plummeted sharply. By mid to late March, the average price of external three-way pigs nationwide had fallen below 10 yuan/kg, reaching a new low since 2019, with a cumulative decline of over 24% this year, leading to deep industry losses.

Against this backdrop, industry sources reported that on the 19th, relevant departments held a meeting requiring several pig enterprises to report their annual production targets. Based on the completion of reducing the breeding sow inventory for the year, they will also cut the annual slaughter volume.

“According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuochuang Information’s data on breeding sows, pig prices are expected to start rising in the second half of 2026. However, from a policy perspective, capacity is still expected to be further regulated, and breeders may adjust the breeding sow ratio to control pig output, thereby reducing corporate losses,” said Zou Yingji, a pig analyst at Zhuochuang Information.

Herd size at historic high

Zou Yingji noted that over the past five years, the trend of pig prices has experienced two small cycles. The impact of pig diseases on the market has gradually weakened, and profit-driven capacity changes have caused fluctuations in pig prices, with the volatility gradually narrowing. Prices are currently in a state of oscillating decline. Due to capacity release, the industry’s breeding scale is at a historic high. The low pig prices are mainly due to the previous high levels of breeding sows, which correspond to high slaughter volumes. Additionally, March is after the Spring Festival, typically a low-demand season, pushing pig prices to new lows.

Shanghai Ganglian analyst Yuan Chunlan stated that the current domestic pig market is characterized by oversupply, with the industry under significant supply pressure. From a capacity standpoint, the breeding sow inventory remains above regulatory targets. Coupled with continuous improvements in breeding efficiency, the industry’s overall supply capacity remains high, supporting current and future pig slaughter volumes.

Mysteel data shows that in key provinces, large-scale breeding enterprises’ pig slaughter plans in March increased by 17.63% month-on-month, with a clear acceleration in slaughter pace. Combined with the large stock of heavy pigs held by farms earlier, the continued clearance of large pigs further increases market supply, and short-term pig prices still face strong supply pressure.

Ongoing losses in breeding enterprises

Since late January this year, the pig breeding sector has been in continuous loss. Data from Zhuochuang Information indicates that in mid-March, the average loss per pig was about 225 yuan.

“Losses in the breeding sector do not necessarily mean pig prices have bottomed out, but current prices are already relatively low, and further price drops are unlikely to support increased demand. Even with moderate market sales, breeders are reluctant to lower prices further. On March 17, the nationwide average price for lean pigs monitored by Zhuochuang was 10.08 yuan/kg, leaving little room for further decline,” said Zou Yingji.

Regarding the overall price trend for pigs this year, Shanghai Ganglian analyst Qu Guona predicts that pig prices in 2026 will likely show a pattern of initial decline followed by a rise, with oscillations. Since the first half of the year is still in a capacity release cycle and demand remains weak, prices will continue to bottom out. If capacity reduction becomes evident and consumption gradually recovers after the third quarter, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. In the fourth quarter, seasonal peak demand will support a more oscillating and stronger trend, helping to recover previous losses and further increase prices.

Cinda Futures’ latest analysis suggests that pig prices still need more time to find a bottom. Data shows that at the end of January 2026, the nationwide breeding sow inventory was 39.58 million, a slight month-on-month decrease. The pace of sow capacity reduction is significantly slower than in 2021 and 2023. Additionally, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises at the end of January was 5.7804 million, still increasing month-on-month. Supply in the second half of 2026 remains uncertain.