Late night, collective dive! US new plan exposed, concerning Strait of Hormuz!

The Strait of Hormuz Continues to Dominate Market Sentiment!

According to CCTV International News citing Axios, sources say the Trump administration is considering pressuring Iran by occupying or blocking Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the plan is still under evaluation.

Additionally, according to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Ambassador to the UK and Permanent Representative to the International Maritime Organization Mousavi stated on the 19th that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all ships except those of enemies. He said that Israel’s recent attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure “crossed another red line,” and Iran will take appropriate countermeasures. Assets belonging to the US and Israel will be considered legitimate targets.

As of 10:25 PM, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 fell by 0.61%, 1.26%, and 0.93%, respectively. Tech stocks declined across the board, with Oracle and Micron dropping over 3%, Tesla and Facebook down more than 2%, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google down over 1.5%. Rising Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel have heightened concerns over inflation. Fed Governor Waller stated that closing the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

European stock markets also experienced sharp declines during the session. As of 10:25 PM, Germany’s DAX 30 dropped 1.10% after initially rising over 1%; France’s CAC 40 fell 0.92% after nearly gaining 1%; the UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.99% after a 0.66% rise earlier.

New US Plan Revealed

According to CCTV International News, Axios reported on March 20 that the Trump administration is considering pressuring Iran by occupying or blocking Kharg Island to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Several sources said the plan is still under assessment and no final decision has been made.

The day before, The Wall Street Journal cited sources saying the US is deploying additional troops to the Middle East and may seize Iran’s key oil export hubs to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

The report states that approximately 2,200 US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are aboard amphibious assault ships heading from Japan to the Middle East, expected to arrive in about a week. The US might use this force to seize Kharg Island as leverage to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait.

Former US Central Command Commander Frank McKenzie said, “(US forces) could destroy its (Kharg Island’s) oil infrastructure, which would cause irreversible damage to Iran and the global economy. Alternatively, they could occupy it as bargaining chips.”

Furthermore, islands near the Strait of Hormuz, such as Gasham Island, Kish Island, and Hormuz Island, could also become targets. Retired US Navy Vice Admiral John Miller said US forces would be in a “favorable strategic position” to intercept Iranian speedboats and shoot down missiles threatening maritime traffic.

Kharg Island, located in the northwest Persian Gulf about 25 km from Iran’s coast, is approximately 6 km long and 3 km wide. It is Iran’s largest oil export hub, with 90% of Iran’s oil exported from here. On the 13th, US military strikes targeted the island.

Since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, international oil prices have surged by about 50%. Recent attacks on oil facilities have further driven up prices. The Wall Street Journal quoted some Saudi officials saying that if the conflict persists into the second week of April without supply recovery and the Strait remains closed, oil prices could continue to climb from $150 to $165 or even $180 per barrel within weeks.

The head of the International Energy Agency warned that restoring oil and natural gas flows in the Gulf region could take up to six months.

Iran’s Latest Response

According to Xinhua News Agency, Mousavi, Iran’s ambassador to the UK and permanent representative to IMO, said in an interview on the 19th that Iran is willing to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, provided its sovereignty and security are fully respected, and arrangements are coordinated with Iran.

Regarding the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Mousavi reaffirmed Iran’s stance: “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all ships except those of enemies. We are exercising our right to self-defense and protecting our territorial integrity.”

Mousavi stated that US and Israeli aggression in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere “has created a very complex, severe, and disastrous situation for us,” and that “the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the result of illegal military activities by them against Iran’s people and territorial integrity.”

Data from the International Maritime Organization shows that since the large-scale military actions by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, at least 7 sailors have been killed in attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, with several others seriously injured. Currently, about 20,000 sailors remain on ships in the Persian Gulf.

Mousavi emphasized that security in the Persian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz, is vital for Iran. Iran welcomes any initiatives and proposals aimed at safer international shipping and protecting sailors, and will continue to cooperate with IMO and maritime authorities worldwide.

He said that as a member of IMO, Iran is aware of its commitments and obligations, but these should be fulfilled under the premise of respecting Iran’s territorial integrity, dignity, and sovereignty. Iran is willing to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but arrangements should be coordinated based on the security situation and in consultation with Iranian authorities.

Mousavi stated that the current conflict is imposed on Iran by the US and Israel and constitutes an act of aggression. Iran prefers to resolve disputes through diplomatic means. Attacks by the US and Israel on civilian facilities like schools are crimes against the Iranian people. “We need to raise awareness about such atrocities and crimes.”

He added that Israel’s recent attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure “crossed another red line,” and Iran will take appropriate countermeasures. Assets belonging to the US and Israel will be considered legitimate targets.

Helium Prices Surge 40%

Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have led to a significant increase in helium prices.

Recent estimates by US banks suggest that spot helium prices have risen by approximately 40% depending on market conditions. Analysts note that in tight supply scenarios, key industries that demand helium prioritize supply security over price, making suppliers more likely to raise quotes.

Foreign media report that Iran’s missile attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, one of the world’s most strategic natural gas hubs, has caused damage and may trigger concerns over global liquefied natural gas and helium supply chains.

Helium is a critical material for the semiconductor industry, produced as a byproduct of natural gas processing. Qatar supplies over one-third of the world’s helium. Ongoing disruptions at Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities could further drive up helium prices for semiconductor companies, with no viable alternatives currently available.

On March 2, QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy giant and the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, announced that its 77 million tons per year facility has halted production and declared force majeure on LNG shipments.

Fitch Ratings analysts wrote in a report to investors this week: “Qatar’s natural gas disruptions are tightening helium supply, which is a byproduct used in semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging.” As Iran’s conflict prolongs and Qatar’s gas supply remains interrupted, risks of helium shortages impacting Asian semiconductor supply chains are increasing.