As of March 21, 2026, XAUUSDT (spot gold) is experiencing a sharp pullback following the Federal Reserve's hawkish decision. Suppressed by expectations of "higher rates for longer," gold prices have fallen below the $5000 psychological level, with a bearish short-term trend.

📉 Estimated minimum price this month

Core support zone: $4500 - $4550

• Current price has already touched the area around $4500 (March 19 low of $4502.58), which is a confluence zone of the 100-day moving average and the February low.

• If macroeconomic sentiment does not improve, the remaining time this month may see repeated tests within this zone, with a break below $4500 targeting $4400.

🔄 Will there be a rebound and what are the targets

Yes, there will be a rebound, but it will be technical in nature, not a trend reversal.

• Rebound trigger: RSI has entered the oversold zone (<30), and profit-taking by bears can easily trigger a rebound.

• Rebound targets: $4800 - $4900. This is a dense cluster where previous support turns into resistance and also represents the 50-day moving average resistance. If unable to break through $4900, the rebound ends.

⚠ Will it continue to break lower

The key is whether $4500 holds.

• If it holds: Consolidation in the $4500-$4800 range to build a bottom, awaiting April data guidance.

• If it breaks: Should $4500 fail with a daily close below, the next target will be $4400 (January launch point), at which point deeper adjustment risks warrant caution.

Core logic: The current decline is primarily due to delayed rate-cut expectations (rising holding costs), not the disappearance of safe-haven logic. Operationally, light positions are recommended, with close attention to the effectiveness of the $4500 support. $XAU