Suddenly, a surge of 35%! Iranian missiles strike again!

Energy prices surge again!

Today (March 19), European natural gas benchmark—the Netherlands TTF natural gas futures April delivery contract—spiked by 35%, reaching a high of €74 per megawatt-hour, the highest since late December 2022.

Brent crude oil futures rose over 8%, breaking through $111 per barrel.

Earlier, the situation in Iran significantly escalated, with Israel launching an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field. Subsequently, Iran attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas facilities, causing severe damage to the world’s largest gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant—the Pearl GTL project.

Additionally, Kuwait Petroleum Company announced on Thursday that a set of production units at the MINA AL-AHMADI refinery was hit by a drone attack, causing a small fire.

According to CCTV News, early morning local time on the 19th, Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas facilities were again struck by missiles. Earlier that day, Iran claimed to have attacked oil facilities in Gulf countries hosting Iranian enemies. Ras Laffan Industrial City is home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facility, producing about 20% of the world’s LNG.

Natural gas prices surge 35%

Today, European natural gas prices surged again, with the Netherlands TTF natural gas futures April contract soaring by 35%, reaching €74 per megawatt-hour. As of press time, the European natural gas futures gain narrowed to 25.5%, trading at €68.61 per megawatt-hour. Since the outbreak of conflict in Iran, European natural gas prices have risen over 100%, and Brent crude oil futures have increased by more than 50%.

Concerns over supply and attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure have driven energy prices higher, with European energy stocks rising collectively on Thursday. As of press time, Equinor was up 8%, Harbour Energy over 4%, BP nearly 3%, TotalEnergies 2%, Eni 1.5%, and Repsol close to 1%.

Earlier, Qatar Energy announced that several LNG facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, causing large fires and extensive damage. The industrial city hosts a plant that typically accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supply. Although transportation was halted earlier this month due to the war, the latest attacks could keep natural gas prices in Europe and Asia elevated for a longer period.

Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facility was also shut down after falling debris from intercepted attacks. U.S. President Trump posted on social media that if Qatar’s LNG facilities are attacked again, the U.S. will retaliate.

Bloomberg noted that the full extent of damage and repair timelines remain unclear. While most of the Middle Eastern LNG exports are purchased by Asian countries, any ongoing supply disruptions will affect the global supply balance—keeping prices high worldwide.

For Europe, this escalation comes at a delicate moment: the region has just come through winter, with gas reserves nearly depleted. This means Europe will need to buy more LNG this summer to replenish stocks, competing with Asian buyers for already reduced supplies.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said, “Qatar’s LNG supply could theoretically be interrupted for months, or even years in the worst case. For the natural gas market, a crisis won’t end just because the war stops and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”

Earlier this month, Ras Laffan plant was shut down due to an Iranian drone attack—its first supply interruption in three decades. Now, after Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, Iran has retaliated, with the large complex suffering further damage, reportedly extensive destruction, making normal operations even more unlikely, according to Qatar sources.

Saudi refinery attacked

According to Bloomberg, a drone fell on a refinery on Saudi Arabia’s west coast, after Iran targeted the facility the previous day, indicating increased attacks on regional energy assets.

The Samref refinery, jointly owned by Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil, is located in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Saudi Defense Ministry said a ballistic missile heading toward the port (a key route for Saudi oil exports) was intercepted. Iran previously stated that, after attacks on its natural gas fields by Israel and the U.S., the Samref refinery was one of the energy facilities targeted.

Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and the UAE’s gas fields have also been attacked. Yanbu is critical for Saudi Arabia and the oil market. After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and limited transportation through that route, Saudi Arabia has increased oil exports from the port.

According to the latest Reuters reports, two sources confirmed that Yanbu port has resumed crude oil loading.

Proofreader: Xu Xin