Kalshi issued a $1 billion free lottery ticket, remember to go scratch it.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Early morning on March 17, prediction market Kalshi announced on X that it will follow the example of Warren Buffett, the stock market legend, by launching the “Perfect Bracket Challenge” for the upcoming NCAA “March Madness” tournament — users who predict all match outcomes perfectly will win a super grand prize of $1 billion.

“March Madness”: America’s hottest basketball event

The so-called “March Madness” is the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament held annually in March by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). Since the tournament usually starts in March, uses a single-elimination format, has a dense schedule, and fierce competition, it’s called “March Madness.”

According to the schedule confirmed by yesterday’s draw, the 2026 “March Madness” will officially start on March 18 (tomorrow) Beijing time. The 68 college teams that qualified after months of regular-season battles will compete for the championship. The first round, called the First Four, will see 8 teams compete, with 4 eliminated, leaving 64 teams to advance through five rounds of single-elimination matches (Round of 64 → Round of 32 → Sweet 16 → Elite 8 → Final Four → Championship) to determine the winner.

As the most watched college basketball event in the U.S., compared to the NBA, which is club-based, NCAA’s college teams often generate a stronger “home team loyalty” among the public. During “March Madness,” students, alumni, and local communities spontaneously support their schools. Because of this, the nationwide participation atmosphere often surpasses even the NBA Finals in popularity.

From a competitive perspective, although college players generally cannot match professional players in overall strength, the uniqueness of “March Madness” lies in the fact that most participants have a very limited window — usually only 1 to 4 years — and top talents often enter the NBA after their freshman season. This fleeting opportunity makes each game more urgent — once on the court, almost everyone plays with all their might.

Meanwhile, 2026 is widely regarded as a big year for NBA draft prospects. University of Kansas’s Darrin Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybans, and Duke’s C.J. Buzer (son of Carlos Buzer, Yao Ming’s rival) are seen as rare talents in recent years, expected to compete for next year’s NBA top pick. The direct matchups among these “future stars” add a layer of anticipation about the future NBA landscape beyond just entertainment.

Traffic explosion, prediction markets can’t miss

During “March Madness,” predicting game results by filling out brackets via sports betting services has long been a popular American tradition. Professional prediction markets naturally want to seize this opportunity.

Currently, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have launched prediction events related to “March Madness.” Polymarket has even included this as one of its first trial paid sports events, seemingly preparing to profit from the upcoming tournament hype.

Polymarket’s real-time odds show that the top four universities favored to win the “March Madness” championship, based on No. 1 seeds from the four major regions, are:

• Duke University, featuring next season’s NBA top pick C.J. Buzer, ranked first with a 21% chance;
• University of Michigan, second with 19%;
• University of Arizona, third with 17%;
• Defending champion University of Florida, fourth with 11%.

On the other hand, Kalshi announced this morning a “nuclear” $1 billion prize activity inspired by Buffett. All users can submit free predictions, and those who predict all match outcomes perfectly will share the $1 billion prize. If no one succeeds, Kalshi will award the best predictor $1 million and allocate another $1 million to charity.

Notably, Kalshi also enlisted NBA star Devin Booker to promote the event. In 2014, Booker’s alma mater, Kentucky University, went undefeated with a 31-0 record in the regular season, was a favorite for the national championship, but lost 64-71 to Wisconsin in the semifinals. Booker entered the NBA the following year, unable to fulfill that regret.

Buffett has offered a $1 billion prize for 12 years, but no one has claimed it

The reason for mentioning Kalshi’s big prize is that it mimics Buffett’s challenge, which was established back in 2014. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway employees could win a $1 billion prize if they guessed all game results correctly, paid out over 40 years (or a one-time $500 million payout).

However, due to the extreme difficulty of perfect prediction, no one has ever won. Buffett has lowered the difficulty multiple times (and the reward accordingly), until last year when an anonymous employee from Berkshire’s FlightSafety International, an aviation training company, correctly predicted 31 of 32 first-round results, winning a reduced million-dollar prize.

How hard is perfect prediction? The industry’s most famous figure is “1 in 9.2 quintillion,” or “one in 9.2 billion billion.” This probability is based on the math that, assuming each game is a 50/50 chance (completely random), and ignoring seed strength, odds, and historical patterns, there are 2^63 possible outcomes for the 63 matches (excluding the First Four). That number is 9,223,372,036,854,775,808… If you wrote all these possibilities on paper, the paper would weigh 1.8 quadrillion tons — equivalent to 500 million Empire State Buildings.

Feeling impossible? No worries, I’ll help you significantly increase your odds!

Kalshi CEO TareK Mansour said this morning that the probability of a perfect prediction is about “1 in 120 billion,” or “1.2 hundred billionth.” The difference from the previous estimate is because this calculation is based on a more realistic model — sports matches are not evenly matched, stronger teams tend to win more often, and after weighting historical win rates and odds, academic and statistical estimates put the chance of a perfect “March Madness” prediction between “1 / 10^11 and 1 / 10^13,” with “1 in 120 billion” falling within this range.

Even so, “1 in 120 billion” still means near impossibility. Clearly, Kalshi is playing the same probability game as Buffett, believing no one will win the $1 billion.

Community is eager, AI may be the key to breaking through

After Kalshi announced the big prize, it immediately sparked widespread discussion on social media — after all, prediction costs nothing, what if someone hits it?

Many users now believe that AI could be the breakthrough key. Overseas KOL Chase Passive Income on X said he would spend $50 million on data processing, enabling countless AI agents to create accounts and fill out all possible brackets — this could be “the easiest way to earn that $1 billion.”

Will the seemingly unsolvable probability puzzle continue? Can AI create miracles? No one knows the answer before the “March Madness” national champion is crowned.

As spectators, besides waiting to watch the games and enjoy the spectacle, don’t forget to fill out your own bracket prediction on Kalshi.