Silicon Industry Branch: Polysilicon trading sentiment remains subdued, with prices under downward pressure

How will the cancellation of AI value-added tax refunds accelerate industry reshuffling?

According to the official WeChat account of the Silicon Industry Branch on March 18, Antaike’s statistics show that this week, the transaction price range for n-type polysilicon re-investment feedstock is 42,000-45,000 RMB/ton, with an average transaction price of 43,200 RMB/ton, down 4.42% month-on-month; the transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is 43,000-45,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 44,000 RMB/ton.

This week, market trading sentiment has weakened compared to previous weeks, with only 2-3 companies securing new orders, and both transaction volume and activity have declined. Market transactions are sluggish, partly because some large orders in March were signed at the end of February and early March, reducing the number of new deals this week; partly because downstream companies are pessimistic about the future and are cautious in procurement. The continued price decline is mainly due to two reasons: first, downstream companies maintain low operating rates and have high inventories of raw silicon materials, leading to no additional demand support in the market; second, downstream companies are pessimistic about the outlook and are not willing to expand procurement, while some upstream companies, to ease financial pressure, are forced to accept lower quotes to close deals, which pulls down the spot transaction prices.

In the short term, weak demand and high inventory pressure remain the core contradictions in the market. Starting April 1, the export VAT refunds for products like photovoltaics will be fully canceled, which may slow overall export growth in the industry, and polysilicon demand will also weaken accordingly. Meanwhile, industry inventories continue to accumulate, and the turning point for destocking has not yet appeared. From policy and market perspectives, the survival of the fittest across the industry chain has become an inevitable trend. In this deep adjustment, companies with lower production costs and better technical indicators will gain relative advantages, while higher-cost and less technologically advanced capacities will face accelerated clearance.