3.20 Objective Data Review Post - Veterans Die on the Road to Catching the Bottom

[Stock Forum]

Hello to all new followers, I am your treasure hunter blogger Wolf Bao.

Here, I share daily insights, market judgments, and valuable information.

Feel free to browse through the valuable posts and watch the videos I’ve spent a lot of effort recording on emotional cycles.

I believe everyone will gain something, find their own treasure. Muah! Let’s keep moving forward, never forget our original intention.

Last night’s cycle review post wasn’t updated, so I’m putting everything I want to say here.

Index Data
Exchange Rate

Short-term volatility, long-term trend unchanged

The US dollar is strengthening, global risk-averse funds are flowing back.

Margin Financing and Securities Lending Data

2.637 trillion yuan

Starting to decline gradually in the coming days.

Index

Didn’t expect the psychological support at 4000 points to be so easily broken?

There’s no support below, probably won’t look at the 250-day moving average.

On Monday’s open, short-term moving averages—30, 20, 10, 5—all in a bearish alignment.

But a golden cross indicates a correction phase; a death cross indicates a rebound.
**
Market opening on Monday: 20-day moving average death cross 30-day**
**
10-day death cross 60-day**
**
This suggests the market might rebound again.**

Veterans got caught bottom-fishing, most likely expecting support at 4000 points last Friday.

Unexpectedly, a big rally came in the afternoon.

We all know a bottom is near, but the rhythm was a day early. Not only did we miss the rebound early, but we also got caught at the foot of the mountain again.

The ChiNext hit a 4-year high, which is an asymmetrical situation because of the strong rally in certain stocks—Yi Zhongtian + Ning Wang + Sunshine.

How can they fall?

One side must be wrong. Need correction.

Profit-taking trend

Ice point

From a structural perspective,

The decline wave here was a bit beyond expectations,

almost connecting the second and third declines.

So future rebounds here could also be beyond expectations.

If you still interpret this as a second decline,

then the magnitude and strength of the third decline will be very small,

probably not noticeable in the short term.

Continuous limit-ups, space, and momentum bias

**
Limit-up tiers

Start to show negative feedback at different levels,

just not yet at the extreme of consecutive limit-downs.

Profit effect: limit-ups begin to group together, but still no breakthrough of 5-limit restriction.

Is this trend snake-like movement a good way to make money? Not really.

This week, stocks with a clear right-side new high pattern—once identified—are mostly being front-run.

Once the pattern is clear, it’s basically a relay to be hit hard.

Only a few, like Faer Sheng, are still popular with some special investors.

This isn’t about faith in the pattern or mode, but about faith in Xin Duoduo personally.

Leading Guosheng Technology, which is also very resilient.

So whether it’s limit-up profit effect or trend profit effect, if you’re playing relay, it’s not good.

Playing first limit-up, or first in-and-two, or the first to break the trend with a limit-up, is still okay.

It indicates the market lacks relay funds or is unwilling to relay, constantly rotating for arbitrage.

Limit-up Pavlovian Baby View List (will keep updating this list, don’t ask why it’s called that)

Pavlov’s baby

Shenhua Fa A, Huadian Liaoning Power

Others are trash.

Theme Cycles
Bulk Price Increase

On Friday afternoon, there was a rebound, and by evening, a big rally—are we heading for a ground attack?

The entire first quarter of 2026, driven by geopolitics, features a bulk price increase as a complete quarterly theme.

The primary upward phases—one, two, three—are related to non-ferrous metals, gold, and silver cycles, forming a cycle.

The second cycle is the oil cycle, with Zhun You Shares crossing the decline of gold and silver.

During the correction of decline one, the second cycle brewed and started during MY’s explosive period.

The third cycle is the post-MY tug-of-war phase, with Jinniu Chemical crossing the oil decline.

As of Friday, Jinniu Chemical hit another limit-down, confirming a significant retreat.

Low positions are no longer fermenting chemical sector rebounds; Heng Tian Hailong is hard to classify as chemical.

More obvious rebounds are in natural gas and Guo Xin New Energy.

So, despite a sharp drop in the market and fluctuating futures, funds are reluctant to chase bulk sector rebounds, preferring tech or energy rebounds.

This yin-yang shift clearly shows which is stronger.

In the last four days of this week, Tuesday’s sharp decline was in tech—Nvidia and semiconductors. Wednesday’s market V-shaped recovery still focused on big tech.

Conversely, bulk sectors started negative feedback.

Thursday, the market continued to sell off, again negative feedback, but not much. Domestic computing power resisted; bulk non-ferrous sectors experienced a super sell-off.

Friday, the market was like this—shouldn’t bulk sectors be doing well? Instead, chemical sector had a super decline. Tech sectors, excluding computing power, were relatively okay.

So, funds are particularly reluctant to invest in bulk sectors because they expect MY’s three-week cycle to be nearly over.

Later, the impact diminishes, and the wave 5 of the big wave has been completed almost perfectly.

If chemical small cycles still show small wave 4 and wave 5, the rebound strength and attitude are less than other sectors.

Big Tech
Overseas Computing Power

Anchored on Xinyisheng, also in a perfect 5-wave structure on weekly chart.

Institutions promote second-tier optical modules CPO, then aggressively attack first-tier Yizhongtian.

Longfei Fiber, on Friday, was also pushed to attempt wave five, but the poor market performance in the afternoon caused it to be invalidated.

PCB Dongshan also attempts to move into the main upward wave three.

Friday’s overseas computing power was the most problematic.

With weightings in Yizhongtian’s explosive rise, strong one-word strength in Ruiskangda and Mingpu Optical & Magnetic.

Overseas mapping with US stocks in optical chips surged.

Currently, quant models dislike relay at new highs on the right side.

From March 2 to March 4, strong in Zhun You Shares.

From March 4 to March 9, strong in smart grid stocks—Suan Na Shares and Han Lan Shares.

On the 10th, overseas computing power was strong for a day.

Starting from March 11 to 13, chemical sector strength.

From March 13 to 16, either betting on Nvidia GTC conference or on Micron’s earnings exceeding expectations and price hikes.

On the 18th, the market rebounded with a bullish candle and a lower shadow. Overseas computing power and Yizhongtian still resonated.

In the afternoon, news of domestic computing power cloud price hikes exploded.

Until the 20th, Friday, a 3-day run of Yizhongtian and a 2.5-day run of domestic computing power.

Is this the discovery? The current quant play is
**
Continuous low-level fermentation of themes in phase one, then resonance with medium-high level recognition in phases two or three.**
**
All strong for 2-3 days, then divergence begins. No funds follow through to higher levels.**

So, on Friday, the overseas computing power pattern was flawless.

The only issue is that at the third day of theme operation, quant models tend to realize gains.

Domestic Computing Power

Accelerate the rally
Q: Wolf King, is there any negative news for domestic computing power? I see collective plunge, and the trajectory of Xiechuang Data is too exaggerated.

Some say Chao Xun Tongxin’s negative news crushed the computing power leasing sector; it’s undeserved.

Some say Xiechuang Data’s small article caused a plunge in the leasing sector.

No, the leasing sector collapsed in the morning.

In the afternoon, Xiechuang Data’s small article indeed accelerated the decline, which is true.

Post-market, it was also clarified.

If on Friday, relay in overseas computing power lost money, that’s understandable.

If relay in domestic computing power lost money, then it shows a misunderstanding of the bidding process.

The bidding for domestic computing power leasing was below expectations.

Only two options: pattern or unfollow; no follow option.

Thursday’s market was at an ice point, with the strongest resistance in computing power leasing.

On Friday, if sentiment is looking to recover, this sector would lead the rally.

Bidding was completely beaten by overseas computing power, Nvidia, and chip stocks.

That’s wrong; Friday’s move was a decline.

@Accelerate the rally

Q: Wolf King, please review the expectations and responses for Meiliyun over the weekend.

On Friday, Meiliyun was the only high-recognition stock resisting the decline.

The market’s second attempt to rebound was also trying to rally against the trend, igniting a return flow.

We discussed once that its moving average was unqualified, not suitable for mid-course.

It could only see if it could effectively rise and drive funds back.

On Friday afternoon, it was dragged down by the market and sentiment, with panic selling and some funds supporting it.

60% turnover on Friday, and the price peak formed on Wednesday was significantly shortened.

A high-level trapped peak formed, indicating profit-taking and left-side trapped positions had exited.

A new high volume was formed on the right side.

Monday’s normal expectation: phased continuation of the decline.

If you ask whether it can unexpectedly recover and rebound on Monday, I can’t predict that. Unexpected recovery is a low probability event.

Unless there’s a strong signal of high volume and weak profit in the bidding.

If it’s still underwater but with resistance,

Monday’s score will still be better than the computing power sector, and then wait for the computing power sector to rebound.

First, it’s more resilient than the computing power sector in declines; second, wait for the computing power sector to rebound.

Lacking both, Monday’s expectation remains divergence.

Domestic Semiconductor

Both the semiconductor and storage sector indices look very poor.

@Hong Ge’s stock cut

Q: Wolf, please review De Mingli over the weekend.

Here, excluding Yaxiang Integration’s rally, De Mingli and Bawei Storage are still weaker than Baiwei Storage.

It seems we still need to watch Bawei Storage’s performance.

De Mingli’s Monday expectation is normal; it’s close to the 10-day moving average at open.

The 10-day moving average is a strong/weak indicator; breaking below it usually triggers technical stop-loss.

If it doesn’t break, there’s still hope for upward expectation.

Power Sector

This sector has already seen a slight decline and a recovery peak. Going higher would require an unexpected extension of wave four.

Going lower would mean starting wave two of the decline.

The fourth wave of rebound now depends on two Huadian companies—Huadian Liaoning and Huadian Energy.

Are they continuing to push Guo Neng Holdings to new highs on the right side, or is Guo Neng Holdings starting wave two downward?

They are also experiencing a decline.

Then a new fifth wave of rebound may appear at low levels.

It seems Friday’s energy storage and photovoltaic stocks are here to do this.

Friday’s energy storage and photovoltaic funds are probably the most cunning and stable.

I have a habit: the market opens high and then drops.

On Friday, in the context of defending 4000 points, it didn’t cater to our mood, opening high and then falling.

So, the first wave of resonance—overseas computing power and power sector—may not be real strength.

The second wave of resonance is photovoltaic energy storage, which pulls back to power.

If energy storage still loses money on Friday, it’s bad luck.

Who would have thought the market would crash so badly in the afternoon?

Friday’s energy storage was a passive divergence.

There’s an expectation of continuation on Monday.

Because, according to quant habits, it only pulls for less than a day here.

Summary

Quantitative control has no absolute main line.

Repeatedly pulling low in phase one, resonating with medium-high recognition in phases two or three.

Switch to another sector for continued rally.

Friday’s overseas computing power pattern was the third day—tricky.

Power sector anchoring is also the third day.

Domestic leasing shows strong divergence after two days.

Energy storage and photovoltaics—one day, energy storage weak, photovoltaics strong.

Photovoltaics formed a consensus on Friday; Monday’s anchoring needs to see if it continues.

Chint Power, Shouhang New Energy.

This new cycle is still far away.

The previous decline point for power sector was a failure point; now it looks reckless.

Because it’s anchoring the last retreating sector.

Jinniu Chemical, representing chemical sector, just declined once.

Xinyisheng, representing overseas computing power, is still in wave five of the main rise.

It seems the new cycle will wait until April.

Next week, don’t be pessimistic; expect recovery. Maybe at the end of the month, there’s another dip, then into April for a new resonance and main rise.

The previous main rises in themes were all contrarian.

So, the pattern is limited to 2-3 days; even with high recognition, a single move can fly away, possibly resulting in losses.

Data Says
Straight to conclusions

This week’s data predicted a recovery expectation for the next day, but it was all intra-day recovery; by close, it was disappointing.

After the market opened on Friday, the number of green stocks was 4447.

Limit-ups already surged by 6%.

Knowing that a high open usually means a decline, everyone was waiting for a second wave of inflow after the decline.

Before noon, energy storage and photovoltaics were pushed up, thinking the correction was complete, but the divergence from the morning was released.

Psychologically, 4000 points is a key level that won’t be easily broken, and the central bank also issued a statement.

South Korea’s stock market opened high but didn’t rise further, just oscillated with a gap.

Geopolitics stabilized somewhat. Why not rebound?

But what happened in the afternoon?

So, Friday wasn’t about no epic recovery, but the first five minutes of the open already gave it.

Once given, it was over.

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB

The data review on Friday still indicates a view of a major recovery on Monday.

Market intraday gave signals, but the close was confusing.

Want to learn data review? Check the data entry and application in the data review section.

Summary of today’s events:

Strong stocks fantasizing ┗|｀O′|┛

Core sentiment stocks

The ugliest: Jin Kai Xin Neng

Someone said it’s Ligong Electronics—this isn’t a trap, okay? The bidding and opening didn’t lie to you; it’s just weak today. Such late-stage entries are not even worth watching.

Loss tags

Most A-grade slaughter

The most eye-catching

Huadian Liaoning
Huadian Energy

Energy sector on Monday: +3.99%, triggered a major move.

This stock has entered the second upward wave and is now in its third day.

Monday is critical; the last three days are a hurdle to see if it’s realized or not.

Whether it can challenge the anomaly again.

Huadian Liaoning

Originally, the idea was that the market’s emotional rebound on Friday would give a strong recovery.

Monday’s open was a continuation of the emotional rebound.

Watch if funds break through the 6-limit restriction; the sentiment will continue to rebound.

Unexpectedly, Friday still closed at the ice point.

So, Monday’s open at the ice point will be tough.

The pattern can be unpredictable—if it jumps early on Monday, it might trigger a rebound.

Funds—where are they going?

Recently, I’ve noticed an advantage: central state-owned enterprises.

No matter which sector, stocks with high recognition have this attribute, like chemical’s Jinniu,

electricity’s Huadian,

computing power’s Meiliyun,

grain sector’s Yasheng Group,

smart grid’s China Xidian, China Electric Power Construction,

Saturday’s energy storage and photovoltaics.

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB

Monday’s forecast
**
Ice point continuation at open**

Unable to predict the close—mainly the market
**
The market should rebound, technically it’s at a rebound window**
**
So, let’s see Monday for strong recovery and close**
**
Feel free to call out if I’m wrong**

Validation

Positive feedback

Huadian Liaoning

Huadian Energy

Negative feedback: anchoring

Jinniu Chemical

Check if there are two consecutive limit-downs.

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLnbweBJA

Response

Don’t cut losses easily if caught in a trap.

Wait for the market to drive sentiment rebound on Monday.

Even if weak, it should still go.

Pay attention to strong stocks during the rebound.

Don’t try to recover losses from weak stocks during the rebound.

The bullish direction is to watch whether the stocks that resisted the decline on Friday lead the rally on Monday.

PCB, domestic semiconductor, domestic computing power, power sector, photovoltaics, energy storage—these are the sectors to watch.

https://www.tgb.cn/a/22nLmcWyh3R

More detailed validation and responses are in the morning session.

If you want to learn deeply, check the blogger’s homepage.

Below are many publicly available articles on valuable insights.

Valuable Articles (a large collection of valuable articles) directory

(
Historical review of emotional cycles—learning from history to understand rise and fall.

@E42@
Video explanation of emotional cycles—everyone says it’s good, maybe you should watch too?

@E43@

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Disclaimer: I only record my own operations and do not force anyone to follow. Please trade cautiously. This blog only documents my own actions.

(Investing involves risks; trade carefully. Plans are never faster than the market. Follow the market movements. The content is personal thoughts and records, only sharing my understanding of the market, not investment advice. Use at your own risk!)

Data review is the most exhausting part. I spend 1-2 hours daily manually organizing data.

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