TINOS, Greece, March 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump has given Europe an impossible choice. The U.S. president says NATO faces a “very bad future” if allies don’t help open the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil normally flows.

European countries do not ​want to join a war against Iran that experts say contravenes international law. But they also do not want the United States to ‌abandon the transatlantic alliance when Russia is threatening their security. Japan and South Korea are in a similar position. They depend on U.S. military support to protect themselves against China.

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There is a possible way out of this bind. though. American allies in Europe and East Asia could say they will help ensure safe passage for tankers through the Gulf, but only after the United ​States and Israel stop their campaign. That would protect the interests of countries dependent on imported oil and gas while managing the risks.

Allies could simply ​decide not to get involved, arguing that Trump started the war and has no option but to reopen the Strait ⁠before U.S. voters feel the squeeze from rising petrol prices.

But European and Asian countries would be unwise to bet on Trump forcing the Strait open. The United ​States is a net exporter of petroleum products and therefore benefits from higher oil prices. Trump could cushion the blow on U.S. motorists with subsidies or lower fuel ​taxes, funded by a levy on energy companies’ windfall profits. The president has even cast doubt on, opens new tab U.S. involvement in the Middle East by pointing to domestic oil resources.

European and East Asian countries are more exposed to high oil prices. They have a strong interest in restoring the flow of tankers through the Strait. The Europeans have an extra reason to end the war ​fast, as the high oil price is benefitting Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the black stuff.

It therefore could make sense for a coalition of oil importers to ​form a task force with energy exporters in the Gulf to restore shipping traffic. French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested something similar. The key conditions would be an end to American and ‌Israeli attacks ⁠on Iran, and no U.S. involvement. The Arab Gulf countries, which are losing billions of dollars a day because they cannot export their oil and gas, could contribute financially and militarily.

Reopening the Strait is “not a simple task”, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday. Iran has drones, mines and other weapons that could make such an operation dangerous. On the other hand, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep the waterway shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. If ​those countries stopped bombing Iran, it might ​not attack a task force of ⁠unconnected nations that was trying to keep the Strait open. Such a proposal could even give Trump a way to declare victory and end the war.

Trump might well reject the offer or be unable to persuade Israel to stop fighting. But ​the proposal is still worth making. It would show that European and East Asian countries are willing to defend their ​interests — while sticking to ⁠international law.

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Context News

• Several U.S. allies said on March 17 they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by President Donald Trump for military support to keep the vital waterway open.
• Trump has called on nations to help police the Strait after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by using ⁠drones, missiles ​and mines to effectively close the channel for tankers that normally transport a fifth of global oil ​and liquefied natural gas.
• Germany, Spain and Italy were among allies that ruled out participating in any mission in the Gulf, at least for now. Britain and Denmark said they would consider ways they might ​help but emphasised the need to de-escalate and avoid getting dragged into the war.

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Editing by Peter Thal Larsen; Production by Streisand Neto

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Hugo Dixon is Commentator-at-Large for Reuters. He was the founding chair and editor-in-chief of Breakingviews. Before he set up Breakingviews, he was editor of the Financial Times’ Lex Column. After Thomson Reuters acquired Breakingviews, Hugo founded InFacts, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case against Brexit. He was also one of the founders of the People’s Vote which campaigned for a new referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU. He was one of the initiators of the G7’s “partnership for global growth and infrastructure”, a $600 billion plan to help the Global South accelerate its transition to net zero. He is now advocating a $300 billion “reparation loan” for Ukraine, under which Moscow’s assets would be lent to Kyiv and Russia would only get them back if it paid war damages. He is also a philosopher, with a research focus on meaningful lives.

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