Domestic retail sales rebounded in January-February, how to interpret this?

Why do data still grow under AI policy target adjustments?

On Monday, March 16th, at 10 a.m., the National Bureau of Statistics released retail sales data: from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 7.9827 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. During trading hours, the secondary market feedback was relatively positive, with the food and beverage sector performing counter to the trend, leading the market with gains in liquor, food prices, condiments, and soft drinks.

Institutional experts pointed out that during the previous local two sessions, most provinces lowered their 2026 retail sales growth targets, which initially caused the market to become more pessimistic about the consumer sector. In fact, considering the flexible setting of the annual GDP target at 4.5%–5% during the two sessions, this reflects policies focused on high-quality development and people-centered growth. It does not affect the recognition of the “domestic demand-driven” strategy, and the very low base still leaves room for consumer recovery.

The overall big consumer sector has been declining for five consecutive years, with market performance severely lagging behind the broader market. Currently, it is at a turning point characterized by weak recovery and strong policy support. Investors can consider dollar-cost averaging into ETFs and their linked products, positioning for low-level recovery opportunities in the big consumer sector.

The Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) tracks the CSI Sub-Index of Food and Beverage, focusing more on leading brands with strong market management capabilities and regional barriers, as well as high-quality regional liquor companies benefiting from state-owned enterprise integration. (Linked C: 013126, Linked A: 013125);

The China Food ETF (159151.SZ) tracks the CSI All-Index of Food, covering leading stocks in sub-sectors such as fermented seasonings, dairy, meat products, and snacks. Compared to traditional food and beverage indices, the All-Food Index completely excludes liquor and beer, aligning more with everyday consumer needs and demonstrating stronger resilience.

The Optional Consumption ETF (562580.SH) tracks the CSI All-Index of Optional Consumption, excluding food and beverages, focusing on sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and retail trade, benefiting from the continuation of the “Two New” national subsidy policies.

The Tourism ETF (562510.SH) tracks the CSI Sub-Index of Tourism, focusing on service consumption, excluding goods consumption, covering duty-free, airlines, hotels, and catering sectors.

The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513230.SH) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, including high-elasticity new consumption assets such as trendy toys and jewelry, supporting T+0 intraday trading.