Counterpoint Research: 2026 to Become the "Major Test Year" for the Smartphone Industry

On March 20, industry research firm Sigmaintell released a survey report, predicting that 2026 will be the “big test year” for the mobile phone industry.

In March 2026, OPPO took the lead in issuing a price increase notice in the domestic market, followed by vivo adjusting channel product prices simultaneously. Meanwhile, various phone manufacturers have also begun gradually raising retail prices for overseas markets. Although some companies have not officially announced price hikes, the price adjustments are already underway.

According to Sigmaintell’s survey, the current round of product price increases is expected to exceed 10% year-over-year, with overseas markets seeing particularly significant adjustments. It is anticipated that after March, the average global smartphone market price will overall reach a new level. With memory prices continuing to rise, there is still potential for further price increases in smartphones.

Significant memory price hikes severely squeeze manufacturer profits

This marks the first large-scale, industry-wide, global price adjustment in the history of the mobile phone industry, driven primarily by “AI computing power fueling a super cycle of memory price increases.”

From a cost perspective, the sharp rise in memory prices has severely squeezed smartphone manufacturers’ profits, causing notable negative impacts on the industry as a whole and on company operations. Smartphones are the most affected sector during this memory price increase cycle. Data from Sigmaintell shows that since Q2 2025, memory prices have entered a rising cycle, which is still ongoing. In the first quarter of 2026, storage prices increased beyond expectations, with consumer electronics storage prices rising over 60% quarter-over-quarter from Q4 2025, and NAND prices surpassing 70% growth.

For mobile application memory, taking a 12GB+256GB configuration as an example, the industry price was about $50 in Q3 2025. By this year’s third quarter, prices are expected to have increased approximately fourfold year-over-year. Black swan events like the Iran war add significant uncertainty to upstream supply.

“Don’t waste every crisis” — opportunities and risks behind price hikes

Although memory price increases have had a significant negative impact on major smartphone manufacturers, their responses vary markedly. “Don’t waste every crisis” — 2026 remains a year of both opportunities and risks for the entire mobile industry.

To cope with rising memory costs, terminal manufacturers mainly adopt two pricing strategies: one is cost transfer based on memory price increases to stabilize profits and ensure healthy operations; the other is proactive internal cost absorption through resource allocation and limited price hikes.

For first-type brands, the 2026 industry crisis emphasizes survival and profit prioritization. For companies with relatively simple business structures still relying heavily on smartphones as their core revenue source, the current situation is especially severe. Without diversified business support, survival becomes the top priority. Price hikes can ease profit pressure but often lead to user loss and shipment declines. Balancing this trade-off, maintaining profit margins and positive cash flow is crucial.

Second-type brands see 2026 as an important strategic opportunity. With the advent of the AI era, the size of mobile user bases becomes particularly important, providing a solid foundation for future AI software profits. These companies tend to adopt proactive strategies, such as internal cost absorption and limited or strategic price increases on certain models.

As competitors raise product prices, consumer device replacement patterns may shift structurally. Leading brands can leverage this to further increase market share and user retention, and drive software service revenue growth through larger user bases, offsetting the cost pressures from memory price hikes. However, only companies with strong internal cost management and diversified business models can successfully implement such strategies. Manufacturers solely focused on smartphones will find it difficult to execute these approaches.

Industry demand is bound to decline, and the competitive landscape will change

Following this round of price adjustments by terminal smartphone manufacturers, the prices of new and existing models are expected to rise overall. The global smartphone industry average price in 2026 is projected to increase by 15% or more year-over-year. This industry-wide price increase will have two direct impacts:

1. Smartphone sales may decline somewhat, directly impacting upstream supply chains. Based on current neutral estimates, Sigmaintell forecasts that global smartphone shipments in 2026 will be approximately 1.12 billion units, a 6.4% decrease year-over-year.

2. The industry landscape is expected to undergo restructuring. Over the next two years, companies with strong group backing and cost management capabilities will stand out. Brands like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, leveraging their core advantages, are likely to navigate industry volatility and achieve steady growth.

2026 will be a critical year for smartphones and upstream supply chain companies alike.