Morgan Stanley: Oil Prices Rising to $120 Would Pose Serious Threat to Asian Economies

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-23T05:35:14+00:00

Morgan Stanley analysts point out that if oil prices rise to $120 per barrel, it would severely threaten Asia's economic growth, potentially causing GDP growth to decline by 20 to 30 basis points, and increasing the proportion of oil and natural gas expenditures as a share of GDP. If the conflict persists, central banks in multiple Asian countries may raise interest rates to combat elevated commodity prices.

MarsBitNews

2026-03-23 05:35:14

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Mars Finance News, March 23 — According to a research report by Morgan Stanley analysts, if oil prices rise to $120 per barrel, it could pose a significant threat to economic growth in Asia. The analysts believe that a sustained $10 increase in oil prices per barrel could directly result in a 20 to 30 basis point negative impact on Asia’s GDP growth. They noted that if oil prices reach $120 per barrel, Asia’s oil and natural gas expenditures would account for 6.3% of GDP. If the conflict continues and commodity prices remain high, the effectiveness of policy buffers will also be weakened. If the conflict persists, central banks in the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and South Korea may have to start raising interest rates from the end of Q3 or Q4.

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