Hong Kong Stock Opening | Hong Kong's Three Main Indices Open Lower; Institutions: Focus on Cyclical, Valuation Bottom Financial and Other Sectors

On March 23, last Friday, U.S. stocks plummeted, and over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East escalated again, causing Asian markets to open sharply lower. The three major Hong Kong stock indices opened significantly lower: the Hang Seng Index down 1.93%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.64%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.9%. Leading technology stocks all declined, with Tencent and Alibaba weakening. Gold prices fell sharply, with gold stocks opening down, especially Chifeng Gold, which plunged nearly 19%. Non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and copper also declined across the board. Meanwhile, shipping stocks, biopharmaceuticals, and auto stocks saw some gains.

Regarding the Hong Kong market outlook

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that, looking ahead, if a prolonged, quagmire-like conflict occurs between the U.S. and Iran, the Hong Kong stock market will undergo a three-stage evolution: “short-term emotional shock → medium-term fundamental transmission → long-term structural divergence.” Macroeconomically, the market faces a severe combination of “low growth, high interest rates, and sticky inflation,” but Hong Kong stocks’ valuation advantage, high dividend characteristics, and support from southbound funds give it relative resilience among non-U.S. assets. Investment strategies should focus on three main themes: cyclical sectors; financial and consumer discretionary sectors at valuation lows; and technology sectors with independent controllable logic in hard tech.

Public fund institutions hold mixed views and some consensus on Hong Kong stocks. The core disagreement centers on whether valuations are suitable for immediate deployment; on the consensus side, most public fund institutions recognize the medium- to long-term allocation value of Hong Kong stocks, with southbound funds, Middle Eastern safe-haven funds, and thematic funds expected to form a synergy. They generally state that future focus will be on performance-driven main lines, and in specific sectors, they recommend a balanced approach, favoring technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks.

Guoyuan Hong Kong believes that, under the current overall easing environment, the trend of expansion and increased allocation of Hong Kong stocks led by mainland funds remains strong. This trend is likely to continue until there are significant changes in the macroeconomic and policy environment in China.

Currently, market risk appetite remains low, and Hong Kong stocks may still face disruptions from external uncertainties. They are particularly sensitive to any improvement in the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Dongwu Securities notes that Middle Eastern geopolitical impacts persist, and Hong Kong stocks remain under pressure, requiring patience. The firm points out that the market has lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the U.S. is experiencing “stagflation” logic. Uncertainty remains around the U.S.-Iran conflict, and it’s unclear whether impacts will end within 4-6 weeks, which could affect Hong Kong stocks. They advise controlling Hong Kong stock positions and paying attention to related oil, gas, military, and safe-haven sectors, as well as China’s “new energy” and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are considered scarce and valuable.

Huatai Securities states that the valuation and earnings expectations of the Hang Seng Tech Index may need more time to stabilize, and from a practical perspective, sentiment indicators have yet to signal an increase in positions.

The firm believes that recent geopolitical volatility may exert overall pressure on risk assets, leading to more cautious expectations. Key catalysts include the peak of competition and expectations for consumption recovery, as well as positive progress in large companies’ models. The period from mid to late March through early April is a critical validation phase. Before that, simply relying on “cheap valuations” is insufficient to sustain a continuous index rally.

It’s important to note that this adjustment is mainly driven by short- to medium-term sentiment and is not indicative of a long-term weakening trend. The core competitiveness and moat of quality tech and internet companies remain solid: large user bases, rich application scenarios, stable cash flows, and ongoing business model innovation form the foundation of their long-term value. The uncertainties brought by AI development are unlikely to cause a long-term downtrend. Looking ahead, continuous breakthroughs in AI technology and China’s deep involvement in the AI ecosystem remain the main drivers of upward momentum.

CITIC Construction Investment believes that geopolitical conflicts have triggered short-term adjustments in global financial markets. Currently, market sentiment has been sufficiently shaken, and if the situation does not escalate further, the market will quickly revert to the medium- to long-term trend led by China’s economy, policies, and liquidity. Future focus should be on dual themes: prosperity and certainty. The prosperity theme benefits from accelerated AI computing power capital expenditure, with the core being the HALO trade.

Changli Asset Chairman Bao Xiaohui also believes that in the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks are unlikely to replicate last year’s one-sided rally, but structural opportunities remain prominent. “Although valuations are low, they have already recovered significantly. The profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is expected to be 3-4%, lower than 6% in 2025, making large-scale valuation expansion difficult. With A-shares above 4,000 points, it’s very challenging for Hong Kong stocks to break out into a violent rally again, but structural opportunities still exist.”

热点聚焦

1. On the evening of March 21, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of China, met with representatives from HSBC, UBS, Louis Dreyfus, Siemens Healthcare, Schneider Electric, Rio Tinto, Prudential, Yinhua, Standard Chartered, Shuzan Anno, Tencel, and other well-known multinational companies at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. He stated that China’s economy is steady and improving, moving towards new and better quality development. During the “14th Five-Year Plan,” China will unswervingly expand high-level opening-up and promote high-quality development, creating broader market opportunities for multinationals. He welcomed multinational companies to increase investment in China and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation. Company representatives expressed confidence in China’s economy and willingness to continue deepening their presence and investment in China.

2. On March 22, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said at the China Development High-Level Forum 2026 Annual Meeting that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. By comprehensively using tools such as reserve requirement ratios, policy interest rates, and open market operations, liquidity will be kept ample.

3. On March 21, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran should open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. Iran responded with four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking all Israeli power plants, energy, and information technology facilities, completely destroying U.S.-owned companies in the Middle East, and targeting power stations in Middle Eastern countries with U.S. military bases.

4. On March 20, Trump said that as they consider gradually downgrading major military actions against the Iranian regime in the Middle East, they are very close to achieving their set goals. According to reports from multiple Iranian media outlets on March 22, an anonymous Iranian official told Lebanon’s “Al-Maidan” TV that Iran has proposed six conditions for a ceasefire.

5. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that on March 20, it approved a 30-day authorization allowing the delivery and sale of ships carrying Iranian-origin crude oil and petroleum products.

6. On Monday morning in Asia-Pacific, international oil prices rose: WTI crude oil up 1.64% at $99.837 per barrel; Brent crude up 1.86% at $108.390 per barrel. U.S. stock index futures declined collectively: Dow futures down 0.55%, S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.78%. International precious metals declined: spot silver down over 1%, spot gold down 0.47%.

公司要闻

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386): For 2025, revenue is expected to reach RMB 2.78 trillion, attributable net profit RMB 32.476 billion, and EPS RMB 0.268. During the reporting period, total oil and gas production was 525.28 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 1.9% year-over-year; natural gas output reached 14,566 billion cubic feet, up 4%, setting a new record high.

China International Travel Service (01880): For 2025, total revenue is RMB 53.694 billion, down 4.92% YoY; net profit RMB 3.586 billion, down 15.97%. Gross profit margin increased by 0.51 percentage points YoY; inventory turnover rate increased by about 10%.

Tuhu-W (09690): For 2025, revenue RMB 16.462 billion, up 11.5%; gross profit RMB 3.968 billion, up 5.9%; adjusted net profit about RMB 700 million, up 12.2%.

Xpeng Motors-W (09868): For 2025, total revenue RMB 76.72 billion, up 87.7%; net loss RMB 1.14 billion, narrowed by 80.3%. Vehicle gross margin was 12.8%, compared to 8.3% last year. Total deliveries reached 429,445 units, up 125.9% YoY.

Hong Kong China Gas (00003): For 2025, revenue HKD 54.326 billion, down 2.07%; net profit HKD 5.688 billion, down 0.42%.

Chifeng Gold (06693): For 2025, revenue approximately RMB 12.6385 billion, up 40.03%; net profit approximately RMB 3.082 billion, up 74.7%.

Sany International (00631): Net profit is expected to be between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, an increase of 49.8% to 73.2% YoY.

This article is reproduced from “Tencent Stock Picks,” with editing by Zhitong Finance: Liu Jiayin.