Global Central Banks' "Super 24 Hours" Approaching, Watch Fed's Stance

How Will AI · Powell’s Statements Reshape Rate Cut Expectations?

This is the “Super 24 Hours” for global central banks. From Wednesday evening to Thursday evening Beijing time, Canada’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Riksbank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and European Central Bank will all release their interest rate decisions within 24 hours. Key factors such as dot plots, rate cut signals, and economic forecast updates will collectively determine the global interest rate trajectory and asset prices.

Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical conflicts have sparked concerns about inflation rebound. Regarding monetary policy communication and forward guidance, most central banks may currently prefer to stay on hold, but their policy wording and interest rate path guidance could provide some signals. Looking ahead, oil shocks and inflation risks not only make the timing of rate cuts uncertain but may also lead markets to reconsider the possibility of rate hikes.

Tonight’s market focus is on Powell. Currently, betting markets indicate that the Fed will frequently mention “gold/oil,” “inflation,” and “volatility.” Capital markets believe the Fed cannot ignore recent inflation risks, and global capital is on high alert, ready to respond to the Fed’s latest stance on high inflation.

Data source: Polymarket, as of 16:00, March 18, 2026

Given the complex and conflicting forces within the U.S. economy, the market currently expects the Fed to likely hold steady, keeping the benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. However, policymakers are probably engaged in intense internal discussions, and the Fed is expected to remain on hold. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Powell 30 minutes later. Key points include: revisions to the latest dot plot regarding future rate paths and the number of rate cuts, Powell’s comments on oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation risks, as well as the overall assessment of economic growth, employment, and financial conditions. Hawkish signals could strengthen the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on stocks and gold.

Data source: CME FedWatch, as of 2026/3/18

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