Oil Price Trends | Strait of Hormuz Continues to Face Disruptions, Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Crude Forecast

SighingCashier · 2026-03-23T06:00:04+00:00

Middle East conflict continues, with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz causing Goldman Sachs to raise its Brent crude forecast to 85 dollars and WTI forecast to 79 dollars. Natural gas transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be only 5% of normal levels within 6 weeks. In the short term, oil prices could rise, but there is also downside risk if U.S. military operations end.

SighingCashier

2026-03-23 06:00:04

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The Middle East conflict has entered its fourth week with no signs of easing. Goldman Sachs states that due to ongoing disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the average Brent crude oil price this year is expected to reach $85 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $77. At the same time, the firm has raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s average price this year from $72 to $79 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs currently expects the average price of Brent crude oil from March to April to be $110 per barrel, a 62% increase compared to the 2025 average.

The bank predicts that the volume of natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz will be only 5% of normal levels and will remain at this level for six weeks before gradually recovering over the course of a month. It notes: “Given the uncertainty about the duration of this disruption and assuming that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains at 5% before April 10, oil prices may trend upward during this period until the market is confident that a long-term supply interruption is less likely.”

The bank states that the high concentration of production and idle capacity risks could also lead to structural increases in strategic reserves and push up long-term oil prices. In the short term, the market may need to see rising risk premiums to trigger precautionary demand contraction.

However, Goldman Sachs also notes that there are downside risks to oil prices, as the U.S. could end military operations at any time, which might reduce risk premiums.

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