【Oil Price Trends】Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Market Faces "Largest Supply Shock in History" Raises 2026 Brent Crude Forecast to $85 per Barrel

The Middle East conflict enters its fourth week with no signs of easing, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed. Goldman Sachs’ latest report describes this event as “the largest supply shock in history,” significantly raising its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026, from $77 per barrel to $85. The NYMEX crude oil forecast has been increased from $72 to $79 per barrel.

This adjustment is mainly based on a key assumption: that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will only sustain at 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by an additional month of gradual recovery. This scenario is more prolonged and severe than previously expected. The report emphasizes that even if transportation eventually resumes, the recent events have exposed vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure, which will keep the market at higher structural risk premiums.

Extreme Scenario: Oil Prices Could Hit $147

In the short term, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 per barrel from March to April, a 62% increase over the 2025 average. The firm also warns that in an extreme scenario, oil prices could hit a record $147 per barrel, surpassing the 2008 high; the 2027 Brent crude oil average is projected to remain at a high of $80 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs notes that although supply shortages have already appeared in Asian markets, global crude oil oversupply before the conflict means that inventories in the US, Europe, and other OECD countries are still rising. However, there are downside risks to oil prices; if US military actions end quickly, risk premiums could decline.