When Will Alt Season Come: Cyclicality and Principles of Forecasting Altcoin Waves

Alt season — a key period in the crypto market when alternative cryptocurrencies show especially strong growth, often surpassing Bitcoin. But how can we tell if we’re on the verge of this phenomenon, and what should precede the activation of altcoins? This question has traders and investors concerned all year, as alt season can dramatically change portfolio returns.

The term “alt season” is used by the cryptocurrency community to describe a period of massive, simultaneous price increases in alternative cryptocurrencies. Experts identify four classic phases that alt season goes through: the initial rise of Bitcoin as the main asset, then Ethereum’s ascent, followed by the activation of large-cap altcoins, and finally a wave of speculation that covers less liquid tokens and small projects — a moment when retail traders flood into the market.

How to identify alt season: index and criteria

Specialists use a statistical approach to identify the alt season period. If 75% or more of crypto assets show returns over the past three months higher than Bitcoin’s, it is officially considered the start of the altcoin season. Based on this, an altcoin season index is calculated — an objective indicator that moves away from subjective assessments.

The pattern suggests that alt season usually begins some time after Bitcoin’s halving. This phenomenon is associated with a gradual influx of capital and revaluation of market assets following a pivotal event in Bitcoin’s history.

Portfolio strategy for the alt season period

Instead of short-term speculative trading, analysts recommend developing a long-term investment strategy tailored specifically for the activation of altcoins. Such a portfolio should include several categories of assets: infrastructure tokens of decentralized exchanges (DEX), which provide the technological foundation for marketplaces; tokens of platforms for decentralized applications (DApps); and, especially relevant in 2026, tokens of projects related to artificial intelligence and automation.

AI tokens at the center of alt season attention

The launch of advanced neural network solutions has rekindled interest in altcoins in the artificial intelligence segment. Worldcoin (WLD) has again attracted traders’ attention as a leading token in the AI project category. Recall that Tools for Humanity, founded with the participation of Sam Altman from OpenAI, issued this token. The current price of WLD is $0.31 with a market cap of $920.27 million. The token’s all-time high is $11.97, demonstrating significant volatility.

Amid the renewed interest in AI tokens, activity around SingularityNET (AGIX) has also increased — a decentralized AI marketplace project on the Cardano blockchain. This altcoin continues to attract attention as a promising asset in the segment related to integrating artificial intelligence into decentralized ecosystems.

Infrastructure projects: ENS and IoT tokens

Beyond the AI segment, analysts are paying attention to projects in the infrastructure sphere. Ethereum Name Service (ENS) offers domain registration services on the Ethereum blockchain. The current ENS token price is $5.93 with a market cap of $227.71 million. Technical analysis of daily charts shows the formation of a potentially positive pattern, hinting at possible further growth of this asset.

JasmyCoin (JASMY) is the token of the Internet of Things (IoT) platform by Japanese company Jasmy Corporation. The current token price is $0.01, with an 8.59% decline over the past 7 days. The decision by Japanese regulators to allow professional market participants to invest in cryptocurrencies has created favorable conditions for the development of domestic crypto projects.

Fear and Greed Index: signals of market overheating

Against the backdrop of capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the rally of the first cryptocurrency, the “Fear and Greed” index on the crypto market reached extreme levels. When this indicator approaches 76-80 points out of 100, it signals a shift in market sentiment into the “extreme greed” zone, indicating dangerous overheating. Similar levels were seen in November 2021 — shortly before Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000, followed by a sharp correction.

Such historical parallels serve as a reminder of the cyclical nature of the crypto market and the importance of reducing risks when extreme index values are reached.

Conclusion: readiness for alt season

Identifying the start of alt season involves multiple factors: the altcoin season index, halving cycles, the behavior of major players, and retail investor sentiment. Preparing a portfolio in advance, including infrastructure solutions, AI tokens, and promising altcoins, allows investors to maximize opportunities during alt season while minimizing risks through diversification and a long-term approach.