Second-hand housing heat rises, transactions pick up - a "small spring" is expected in first-tier cities

Source: 21st Century Business Herald Author: Wu Shuying

The peak season for real estate transactions, “Golden March and Silver April,” has arrived as expected.

Last Saturday (March 14), Shanghai set a new high for the year with 1,472 daily online signed second-hand housing transactions; Beijing’s housing market saw month-on-month growth in second-hand transactions driven by policy; Guangzhou’s viewing and transaction volumes for second-hand homes also increased; Shenzhen’s second-hand housing transactions surged in the first half of March.

Every year in March and April, the real estate market reaches a critical point. Since the beginning of the year usually coincides with the Spring Festival, demand is deferred; additionally, demand for school district homes is typically released in March and April, boosting overall market activity. As a result, market attention is especially focused on these two months, which influence the annual market trend.

This year’s “Golden March and Silver April” appear even more distinct. The real estate market has been rational for several years, and the public is particularly hopeful that this year’s “small spring” can achieve both volume and price increases, leading the market into a new development cycle. According to multiple sources and interviews conducted by 21st Century Business Herald, current transaction volumes in first-tier cities have significantly rebounded month-on-month, while prices remain relatively stable. Analysts suggest that under policy stimulation, Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a concentrated release of demand, making this year’s “small spring” optimistic for transaction volume; Guangzhou and Shenzhen also show bright spots, with an overall recovery trend expected.

Transaction volume is rising in first-tier cities, prices are stable, and the overall national real estate market is showing a good start.

“Small Spring” Arrives

Shanghai is the most prominent city in this round of “small spring.”

According to CRIC, from March 9 to March 15, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market experienced explosive growth, with weekly transactions reaching 7,233 units, the highest in nearly five years (since 2021).

Data from Shanghai Online Real Estate show that on March 18, the daily transaction volume for second-hand homes reached 906 units during a weekday, remaining high in the market.

The recent “hot” sales in Shanghai are driven by new policies. On February 25, Shanghai issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies,” introducing seven measures to stabilize the market, including shortening social security contribution periods for non-Hukou residents, relaxing residence permit home purchase qualifications, and increasing maximum housing provident fund loan limits, collectively known as the “Shanghai Seven Policies.”

A national real estate company’s Shanghai client research manager told 21st Century Business Herald that each new policy in recent years has stimulated some demand to enter the market early. This time, combined with the “Golden March and Silver April” period, overall market performance has seen a surge in transactions, with prices remaining stable and no significant decline. “From the data we’ve observed, since December last year, Shanghai’s second-hand home prices have not further fallen and remain quite resilient, which is a positive signal.”

Beijing’s policies from December last year are also still influencing the market. According to 58 Anju Research Institute, after the Spring Festival, as offline sales offices and agent stores fully resumed operations, housing demand rebounded rapidly. On February 28, Beijing’s new home market heat index rose to 60.3, and second-hand housing to 66.1; by March 14, these figures further increased to 59.9 and 65.6, respectively, indicating continued policy-driven momentum.

In terms of transaction volume, from January 26 to February 1, Beijing recorded 4,244 transactions that week, the highest in 12 weeks, over 30% higher than the previous week before the new policies. The market gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with 2,980 transactions in the week of March 1-8.

Unlike Beijing and Shanghai, where policies are boosting the market, Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s recovery is mainly driven by rigid demand.

Public data shows that in the first two weeks of March, Guangzhou’s second-hand housing online signing volume exceeded 4,000 units, with a single-day high of 271 units (March 15), reaching a new high for 2023.

A real estate agent in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, told 21st Century Business Herald, “I’ve been very busy lately, showing homes, meeting clients, signing contracts every day. Now, you have to queue at signing centers, which is different from the end of last year. Our agency has already closed 9 deals this month.”

Shenzhen’s data is also very direct: according to monitoring data from Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, as of March 18, the city’s total transactions for new and second-hand residential properties exceeded 4,000 units. Among these, new homes totaled 1,474 units, up 38.9% from February; second-hand homes transferred totaled 2,715 units, up 58.6% from February.

The Shenzhen Centaline Research Center analysis indicates that after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen’s market has continued to rebound, with a clear increase in buyer willingness. Many projects are offering discounts and promotions, which have been effective; second-hand transactions are also quickly warming up, signaling the arrival of a “small spring.”

Signals Need Strengthening

While transaction volumes are rising and prices remain stable, second-hand homeowners are showing a “hold” mentality.

According to information from multiple agencies in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen obtained by 21st Century Business Herald, second-hand homeowners are relatively firm on prices, with limited room for negotiation. “Earlier, most cost-effective second-hand homes have been sold. Since the Spring Festival, prices are hard to negotiate because homeowners see the market improving and prefer not to lower prices and rent instead. So, prices are generally stable, but if prices loosen, sales will be quick,” a Shenzhen Nanshan agent said.

For new homes, developers are still adopting a “price-to-quantity” strategy. A marketing executive from a company focused on East China told 21st Century Business Herald that while second-hand housing volume is increasing and prices are stable, the “signal for new housing to start” still needs confirmation.

According to data provided by the marketing executive, most new home transaction prices in Shanghai and surrounding cities have declined this month, mainly due to developers’ “price-to-quantity” tactics and shifts in transaction structure.

“In March, a competitor’s project nearby was priced at 85% of ours, about a few thousand yuan lower per square meter. They moved units quickly, while we hardly sold anything,” said a South China real estate professional.

This divergence in sentiment is also reflected in the land market.

For example, in Shanghai, on March 13, the first batch of residential land for 2026 was auctioned, with three plots located in Jiading New Town, Xuhui Changqiao, and Qingpu Xihongqiao, totaling about 198,300 square meters of land, with a total transaction amount of approximately 6.809 billion yuan. Except for the Qingpu plot, which sold at a 6.6% premium, the other two were sold at base price.

This indicates that, despite current market enthusiasm, developers remain cautious in land acquisitions. Previously, during the performance meeting, Zhangjiashan, Vice President of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, analyzed that the land market in 2026 is expected to continue low overall, with some localized hotspots.

He emphasized that in 2026, China Merchants Shekou will continue to focus on key regions and cities, adopting a sales-driven investment approach, carefully selecting projects. Based on market conditions and cash flow, and while meeting the “three red lines,” balancing scale and profit, each project should meet the “six good” investment standards to ensure effective resource allocation, with a focus on project turnover and profit realization.

From this perspective, the current “small spring” in the real estate market can help stabilize and recover the market throughout the year, but this depends on multiple factors. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at CRIC, reminds that market stabilization will be a gradual process, and sustained growth will depend on macro fundamentals such as residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations improving substantively.