Backpack's BP is not a utility token—it is an equity stake

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How Equity Pledges Differ from Regular Token Issuance

Backpack announced during TGE: staking BP for one year can give up to 20% of the company’s real equity. This isn’t about fee discounts or governance voting rights—it’s a bet on whether Backpack can succeed. The topic shifted from “Will the token price go up?” directly to “Is the company worth anything?”

  • 25% of tokens are directly allocated to the community with no internal reserves, appearing to take less “cut” than most projects.
  • However, on-chain activity is very weak (almost no minting, very few transfers), which poses execution risks in the Solana ecosystem where retention is critical.
  • Accounts like MrBreadSmith promote “pre-IPO equity” as a core selling point, but only a handful of influential accounts are spreading this. It feels more like an experiment on Solana rather than an immediate market-changing event.

My view: The so-called “DeFi momentum” is overrated. The 7-day flexible unbonding is user-friendly for early users, but Solana’s total locked value (TVL) remains around ~$10B, with no signs of whales entering or clear links to Backpack. These are noise. The real test is whether staking data can prove users are willing to hold long-term, not just hype on tweets.

  • Liquidity is too thin, so the pricing is likely off: Early prices are around ~$0.00003–0.000037, mostly on suspicious or new DEX pairs, dominated by bots and fake pools. If Backpack is truly gaining volume, this price probably doesn’t reflect the equity expectations.
  • Community distribution is good but carries concentration risk: 240 million tokens allocated to stakers, theoretically favoring builders over speculators. But if a few addresses quickly dominate after minting, the narrative could weaken.
  • The link to Solana remains theoretical: Currently, it has no impact on TVL. If staking really pulls in significant funds, it might strengthen SOL’s DeFi narrative during macro gaps—but too many conditions and too little validation.

Incomplete Information Leads to Pricing Bias

TGE just ended, and on-chain data is limited—major holdings and staking locks haven’t been fully indexed. What is known: official docs say there’s no linear unlock, with supply and growth milestones tied to the project. This structure penalizes short-term traders through potential dilution and rewards long-term holders. External interpretations call it a “new type of exchange token,” but hype is moderate: discussions on Twitter swing between interest and skepticism, with no signs of top accounts coordinating promotion.

My assessment: At current liquidity levels, Backpack’s model might be undervalued. Small positions can participate in staking to gain equity exposure, but until trading volume picks up, spot trading can be ignored in the short term.

How different participants interpret this:

Participant Perspective Evidence / Signals / Sources Impact on Market Thinking / Positioning My View
Short-term traders Tweet spread (about 15 top accounts, 33K views) + flexible unbonding Promotes “fast in, fast out” play, but DEX liquidity on Raydium for suspicious pairs is only ~$1M, with a crowded exit Overthinking. No volume, no trend—this structure more easily traps retail traders chasing quick gains
Long-term holders Token economics: 1-year staking for 20% equity, 25% community distribution Positions BP as a valuable asset, attracting native Solana funds during a weak ecosystem Opportunity here. If Backpack hits milestones, I’d have about 60% confidence in equity returns and would stake accordingly
Solana bulls Stable TVL (~$10B), linked to Mad Lads NFT, no clear dedicated fund flow Supports “DeFi rotation” bets, but lacks whale activity evidence Early and asymmetric—if staking pulls in flows, mispricing is obvious, but current data gaps reduce confidence to around 40%
Skeptics Very low on-chain activity, mild interactions (~248 likes) Indicates execution gap, leaning toward shorting or avoiding after TGE Reasonable concern. Unindexed concentrated holdings could be risky, but the equity mechanism does have differentiation

Key point: If you’re aiming for long-term equity via staking, you’re ahead of the narrative. Builders and funds already in Solana have an advantage—when short-term noise is irrelevant, they can capture undervalued consensus.

Conclusion: It’s an “early but feasible” stage. The real advantage goes to long-term holders willing to stake for equity and to builders and funds deeply involved in Solana; short-term traders are likely just losing in a liquidity trap.

SOL4.15%
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