Ultimate Showdown? Battle for the Strait of Hormuz Emerges

U.S. military claims use of earth-penetrating bombs to strike Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz

On the 17th, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that U.S. forces used multiple 5,000-pound earth-penetrating bombs to strike Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

The message states that these locations house Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, which “pose a threat to international shipping within the strait.”

Recently, President Trump has repeatedly urged European countries and other allies to participate in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, complaining that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about assisting the U.S… On the morning of the 17th, Trump posted on social media that most NATO allies have informed the U.S. that they are unwilling to participate in military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and that the U.S. no longer needs help from NATO countries and others.

International Observation | US-Europe Relations Encounter “Strait of Hormuz”

Facing U.S. threats and pressure, several European countries stated on the 16th that they would not participate in the U.S.-proposed escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz, saying “this is not Europe’s war.” President Trump complained that European allies “don’t know how to repay kindness.”

Analysts believe that Europe’s non-cooperation is driven by domestic political pressures and practical considerations to avoid security risks, as well as a desire to morally distance themselves from the conflict, and can also be seen as a response to Trump’s previous humiliations of Europe. As the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to ferment, issues like escorting ships and the Ukraine situation are increasingly spilling over, deepening transatlantic rifts.

On March 11, European Commission President von der Leyen spoke at the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg, France. She said that military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have led to increased tensions in the Middle East, causing European citizens to suffer billions of euros in losses. Xinhua News Agency (EU source)

“Not Europe’s War”

The U.S. has been pressuring European allies for several days. On the 15th, Trump said that if NATO allies do not take action to help ensure the safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad future.” The next day, he complained that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about helping the U.S., implying that these allies, once protected by the U.S., are “ungrateful.”

Trump’s threats and complaints have met “counterattacks” from many European countries.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell directly stated on the 16th that the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran “is not Europe’s war,” and “no one wants to be involved in this war.” EU member states have no intention of expanding current escort operations in the Red Sea and Gulf region to the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany, Italy, Spain, and others have explicitly stated they will not send ships to participate in escort missions. Spain’s foreign and defense ministers directly called the U.S. military actions against Iran “illegal,” and clearly stated that Spain “will not join.” Portuguese Foreign Minister Rangel said on the 16th that Portugal “has no intention of getting involved” in the current conflict. German Chancellor Mertens said that the US-Israel-Iran conflict is not a NATO matter, and Germany will not participate.

France and the UK also expressed refusal or caution. The French Foreign Ministry said that the French Navy will not go to the Strait of Hormuz, and its current operations in the Eastern Mediterranean follow “defensive principles.” The UK suggested that the “best and most comprehensive way” to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is to end the conflict.

Why Europe is “not following”

Analysts believe that Europe’s lukewarm response to the U.S. escort request is due to three main considerations.

First, Europe does not want to pay for troubles caused by the U.S. The military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran were not authorized by the UN Security Council, were initiated suddenly during diplomatic negotiations, and resulted in numerous civilian casualties, including children, which has caused widespread resentment among Europeans. Now, with the conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices, the U.S. wants to rally allies for “joint escort,” but Europe is reluctant to share the costs. Some Europeans have commented on social media: “The bill still came to Europe,” but “we won’t pay.”

Second, European countries are reluctant to assume the military risks of escorting. The Strait of Hormuz is extremely dangerous. Its narrowest point is less than 40 km wide, and Iran can threaten passing ships with missiles, drones, small surface vessels, and mines from its northern coast. The confined environment and tense conflict situation make collisions, misjudgments, and accidental strikes highly likely. The U.S. Navy experienced mines and mistaken attacks on aircraft during escort missions in the Strait in 1988.

Third, Europeans prefer diplomatic solutions. France, Germany, and the UK were key participants in the Iran nuclear negotiations and have experience and willingness to resolve Iran-related issues through diplomacy, which can also serve their strategic interests. They have called for diplomatic solutions to the current US-Israel-Iran conflict. Borrell said on the 16th that the EU is actively promoting diplomatic approaches to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Differences between the U.S. and Europe on Iran and escort operations further reveal and deepen the rift. Notably, Iran has previously stated that it would close the Strait of Hormuz only to “enemies and their allies, and to invaders against our country.” To some extent, if European countries participate in the U.S.-proposed escort, they would be standing against Iran.

U.S. “Strategic Assist” to Russia?

Many European analysts believe that the spillover effects of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on Ukraine are also a significant factor in the growing rift between the U.S. and Europe.

First, increased oil revenues give Russia room to breathe. Due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have risen to their highest levels since mid-2022. As a major oil producer, Russia benefits from higher oil prices, increasing its income. To curb rising prices, the U.S. has relaxed some sanctions on Russian oil exports, including granting India a 30-day exemption to buy Russian oil. Some European analysts see this as giving Russia, which has been under Western sanctions, a rare respite.

This photo was taken during the “Duzon Cobra 2018” joint missile defense drill at the Hatzor Air Force Base in Israel on March 8, 2018. Xinhua News Agency (Guo Yu)

Second, Ukraine’s air defense capabilities are weakened. The U.S.-made Patriot missile system is crucial for Ukraine’s defense. The U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies have used large quantities of Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the number of Patriots used in the first few days of the US-Israel-Iran conflict exceeded Ukraine’s total usage in recent years. European media believe that as the conflict continues, more Patriots will be deployed to the Middle East, leaving gaps in Ukraine’s air defense. This increases European anxiety and concern.

Third, the growing US-Europe rivalry expands Russia’s strategic space. After disagreements over military spending, tariffs, and Greenland sovereignty, the split over escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz is another sign of increasing discord. European analysts see this “new internal conflict” as further weakening U.S. aid to Ukraine, turning assistance into bargaining chips. For Russia, a NATO with deepening trust issues offers more strategic opportunities for future confrontation with the U.S. and Europe. (Xinhua News Agency: Liu Piran, Liu Zan, Song Ying)

World Watch | Can Gulf Oil Transport Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

According to data from maritime analytics firm Windward on the 15th, no ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th, the first such occurrence since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, whereas before the conflict, an average of 77 ships passed daily. Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, international crude oil futures prices surged past $100 per barrel at the start of the new trading week on the 15th.

Whenever tensions or war erupt, the Strait of Hormuz almost always experiences shipping disruptions or blockages, causing global oil prices to spike. Given the region’s rich oil resources, have Gulf countries considered alternative export routes? Is the Strait of Hormuz truly irreplaceable as the world’s key maritime oil transit route?

Photo of the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero near the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency / Iranian Student News Agency

Limited Oil Pipelines

The main alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is through oil pipelines, but such pipelines are few in the region, mainly two: from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline in the UAE starts from the main oil-producing region of Habshan and reaches the port of Fujairah, officially operational since July 2012. It is 420 km long, with about 405 km on land and 13.6 km underwater, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, thus bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipelines were built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, running from the eastern oil fields in the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The total length exceeds 1,200 km. Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser recently said the maximum sustained capacity is 12 million barrels per day, and they are maximizing the use of these pipelines to maintain supply.

According to the International Energy Agency, since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, over a quarter of the crude oil and diesel normally shipped through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be exported via these pipelines.

U.S. Consumer News & Business Channel reports, citing energy analysts, that about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. In comparison, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipelines have a capacity of nearly 7 million barrels per day, with about 2 million barrels used for domestic refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels for export. The Abu Dhabi pipeline’s rated capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day. However, due to the high risk of military strikes on energy infrastructure, analysts estimate current actual throughput at just over 70% of rated capacity.

A photo released by the Thai Navy on March 11 shows a Thai cargo ship attacked and set on fire in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency (Thai Navy)

The Irreplaceability of the Strait of Hormuz

The New York Times reported on the 14th that many Gulf countries would need to build cross-border pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. However, due to geographic, political, and economic factors, laying transnational pipelines is costly and politically complicated. Qatar, for example, severed ties with the UAE in 2017 and only restored relations in 2023.

Even bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with pipelines does not guarantee safety. BP’s former CEO John Brown said that oil and gas facilities could become targets for attacks, and there is no “completely safe” solution. In May 2019, the Saudi east-west pipeline was interrupted after an attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Besides pipelines, establishing a unified rail system for passenger and freight transport is another option to bypass the Strait. Although proposed over a decade ago, practical implementation remains uncertain. The New York Times notes that building a multi-national oil export system is more complex than laying pipelines, constrained by economic and political factors.

In response to U.S. efforts to block oil exports, Iran in July 2021 activated a land-based pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, extending 1,000 km from Ghol in Iran’s Bushehr Province to the port of Jask in Oman Bay.

Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical maritime route for oil transportation. As the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, over a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strait.

The International Energy Agency estimates that since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply declined, less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. Many oil-exporting countries have reduced production due to lack of transportation channels. Norway’s Rystad Energy estimates that Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have collectively reduced their oil output by several million barrels over the past week.

As of the 11th, the region’s oil-producing countries have collectively cut at least 10 million barrels per day, about 10% of global supply. With many refineries shutting down or reducing capacity, the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is also decreasing.