Exxon Mobil Faces $5B Revenue Hit after Iran Strikes Qatar — Is XOM Stock Still a Buy?

Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on the energy sector. Last week, Iranian missile strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, a major hub for liquefied natural gas, causing damage to key oil and gas infrastructure. According to estimates from QatarEnergy, U.S.-based Exxon Mobil XOM +0.95% ▲ , which has significant exposure in Qatar, could lose around $5 billion in annual revenue due to the damage, potentially weighing on the company’s near-term outlook.

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Despite the disruption, major oil companies have actually benefited from rising crude prices. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices to around $100 per barrel. If the conflict continues, companies like Exxon could see even higher profits. Since the war began, Exxon shares have climbed nearly 6%. At the same time, analysts remain positive on XOM stock, with several raising their price targets since the conflict began. However, the near-term upside appears limited after the recent surge in the share price.

Big Oil Under Pressure

Exxon has operated in Qatar since 1955 and holds stakes in several LNG projects. However, recent Iranian strikes have hit its operations hard. Meanwhile, repairs could take up to five years, which may impact long-term revenue. Earlier this month, Exxon also evacuated non-essential staff from the Middle East as a precaution.

Similarly, Iranian missiles struck Shell’s SHEL -0.82% ▼ Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar, damaging one production line that could remain shut for at least a year. The Pearl plant, located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, is the world’s largest gas-to-liquids facility.

Analysts Stay Bullish on XOM Stock

Last week, Bernstein’s five-star-rated analyst Bob Brackett raised his price target on XOM stock from $159 to a Street-High of $195 with a Buy rating. His price target implies an upside of over 20% from current levels. The update reflects higher crude oil prices and refining margins, though the firm notes there is still a wide range of possible outcomes. Brackett also pointed out that conflicts like this often last longer than expected, sometimes stretching for years. Given the uncertainty and potential upside risks, Bernstein continues to recommend increasing exposure to energy stocks.

Mizuho’s top-rated analyst Nitin Kumar raised his price target on XOM to $162 from $140 while maintaining a Hold rating. He increased his 2026 oil price forecast by 14% to $73.25 after the Iran conflict entered its third week. Kumar noted that it is still too early to determine if the conflict will permanently raise global oil prices, but the trend is likely upward. Mizuho remains positive on the oil and gas sector overall.

What Is the Prediction for XOM?

According to TipRanks, XOM stock has received a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 11 Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Exxon Mobil is $153.84, suggesting a potential downside of 3.65% from the current level.

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