Kalshi issued a $1 billion free lottery ticket, remember to go scratch it.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

In the early morning of March 17, prediction market Kalshi announced on X that it will follow the example of Warren Buffett and launch the “Perfect Bracket Challenge” for the upcoming NCAA “March Madness” tournament — users who perfectly predict all match outcomes will win a super grand prize of $1 billion.

“March Madness”: America’s hottest basketball event

“March Madness” refers to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament held every March by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). Since the event usually starts in March, features single-elimination rounds, a packed schedule, and fierce competition, it’s called “March Madness.”

According to the confirmed schedule announced yesterday, the 2026 “March Madness” will officially start on March 18 (tomorrow) Beijing time. The 68 college teams, having qualified through months of regular-season battles, will compete for the championship. The first round will be the “First Four” play-in games, where 8 teams will compete, with 4 eliminated, leaving 64 teams to advance through five rounds of single-elimination matches (Round of 64 → Round of 32 → Sweet 16 → Elite 8 → Final Four → Championship) to determine the winner.

As the most watched college basketball event in the U.S., compared to the NBA, which is club-based, NCAA often fosters a stronger “home team” identity among the public. During “March Madness,” students, alumni, and local communities spontaneously support their schools. Because of this, the nationwide participation atmosphere often surpasses even the NBA Finals in enthusiasm.

From a competitive perspective, although college players generally can’t match professional players in overall skill, “March Madness” is unique because most participants have a very limited window — usually only 1 to 4 years — and top talents often enter the NBA after their freshman season. This fleeting opportunity makes every game more urgent — once on the court, almost everyone plays with all their might.

Meanwhile, 2026 is widely regarded as a big year for NBA draft prospects, further increasing the tournament’s attention. University of Kansas’s Darrin Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybans, and Duke’s Cameron Buzer (son of Carlos Buzer, Yao Ming’s rival) are seen as rare talents in recent years, vying for next year’s NBA top pick. The direct matchups among these “future stars” add a layer of anticipation about the future NBA landscape beyond just entertainment.

Traffic Explosion, Prediction Markets Can’t Miss

During “March Madness,” predicting game results by filling out brackets via sports betting services has long been a popular American tradition. Prediction markets specializing in this can’t miss the opportunity either.

Currently, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have launched prediction events related to “March Madness.” Polymarket has even included it among the first trial paid sports events, seemingly preparing to profit from the upcoming hype.

Polymarket’s real-time odds show that the top four favorites to win the 2026 “March Madness” championship, based on the top seeds from the four major regions, are:

• Duke University, with the popular NBA top pick Cameron Buzer, ranked first at 21%;
• University of Michigan, second at 19%;
• University of Arizona, third at 17%;
• Defending champion University of Florida, fourth at 11%.

On the other side, Kalshi announced this morning a “$1 billion grand prize” activity, mimicking Buffett’s style. All users can submit free predictions; those who perfectly predict all match results will share the $1 billion prize. If no one succeeds, Kalshi will award the best predictor $1 million and allocate another $1 million to charity.

Notably, Kalshi has also recruited NBA star Devin Booker to promote the event. In 2014, Booker’s Kentucky team went undefeated 31-0 in the regular season, was favored to win the national championship, but lost in the semifinals 64-71 to Wisconsin. Booker entered the NBA the following year, leaving that regret behind.

Buffett’s 12-year bounty, yet no winner

The reason Kalshi’s big prize is modeled after Buffett’s is that Buffett set up a similar challenge back in 2014 — employees of Berkshire Hathaway could win $1 billion if they guessed all game results correctly, paid out over 40 years (or a lump sum of $500 million).

However, due to the extreme difficulty of perfect prediction, no one has ever won. Buffett has lowered the difficulty multiple times (and the reward accordingly), until last year when an anonymous employee from Berkshire’s aviation training company FlightSafety International correctly predicted 31 of 32 first-round games, winning a reduced but still substantial $1 million.

How hard is perfect prediction? The industry’s most famous figure is “1 in 9.2 quintillion,” or “9.2 hundred quintillion to 1.” This probability is based on the math that, assuming each game is a 50/50 chance (completely random), and ignoring seed strength, odds, and historical patterns, there are 2^63 possible outcomes for the 63 games (excluding the First Four). That number is 9,223,372,036,854,775,808… If you wrote all these possibilities on paper, the paper would weigh 1.8 quadrillion tons — equivalent to 500 million Empire State Buildings.

Feeling impossible? No worries, I’ll help you significantly improve your odds!

Kalshi CEO TareK Mansour said this morning that the probability of a perfect prediction is about “1 in 120 billion,” or “1.2 hundred billion to 1.” The difference from the industry estimate is because this calculation is based on a more realistic model — stronger teams are more likely to win, and after weighting historical win rates and odds, academic and statistical estimates put the chance of a perfect March Madness prediction between “1 / 10^11 and 1 / 10^13.” So “1 in 120 billion” falls within this range.

Even so, “1 in 120 billion” still means near zero probability. Clearly, Kalshi is playing the same probability game as Buffett, believing no one will win the $1 billion.

Community Ready, AI Could Be the Key

After Kalshi announced the grand prize, it immediately sparked widespread discussion on social media — after all, prediction costs nothing, what if someone hits it?

Many users now believe that AI could be the breakthrough key. Overseas KOL Chase Passive Income on X said he would spend $50 million on data processing, enabling countless AI agents to create accounts and fill out all possible brackets — making it the “easiest way to earn that $1 billion.”

Will the seemingly unsolvable probability puzzle continue? Can AI create miracles? No one knows the answer before the “March Madness” national champion is crowned.

As spectators, besides waiting to watch the games and enjoy the spectacle, don’t forget to fill out your own bracket on Kalshi and dream big.