Hormuz Strait Turbulence Shifts Sharply, Iran's Foreign Ministry Outlines Strait Passage Principles

U.S. President Trump issued an “ultimatum” on the evening of March 21, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face destruction of its power plants. Half the time has passed, and Iran has responded firmly, with the situation nearing escalation.

As the world’s most important energy transportation route, the security and passage status of the Strait of Hormuz significantly impact Asian stock markets, with energy-dependent economies (such as Japan and South Korea) remaining under pressure.

On Monday morning, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell as much as 3% to 230.88 points, with stock markets in Japan and South Korea triggering circuit breakers.

Regarding the situation in the strait, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for Legal and International Affairs, Gharibabadi, stated that open threats against energy and infrastructure violate international law. The initiators will bear full legal responsibility and all consequences arising from their actions.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on March 22 local time, saying the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, and ships can continue to navigate through the waterway under necessary measures taken due to the war situation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian further clarified Iran’s stance on shipping and navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz via social media: any country that does not participate in or cooperate with aggression against Iran, and complies with Iran’s security regulations and measures, can pass safely after coordination with Iranian authorities.

It should be noted that key resource sectors such as the Strait of Hormuz are firmly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and armed forces. Previously, high-ranking military officials, the president, and diplomatic officials have expressed conflicting positions, such as whether to block the Strait of Hormuz or whether to continue negotiations with the U.S.

The Strait of Hormuz is not only vital to global energy but also directly affects fertilizer supply, agricultural production, and food prices. The Gulf region is the world’s largest urea production and export base, supplying about 45% of global sulfur exports (a key raw material for phosphate fertilizer). Currently, during the peak spring planting and fertilization season in the Northern Hemisphere, the livelihoods of at least 100 million people are at risk.

According to multiple maritime data platforms like ShipView, as of this report, there are 2,810 ships in the Persian Gulf. Yesterday, the total ship passage through the Persian Gulf was 1 vessel, with no container ships or oil tankers, 1 refined oil tanker, and no LNG or LPG ships; 0 ships entered, 1 ship exited. This represents a 50% decrease compared to the previous day and a 99.15% decrease year-over-year.

Previously, Iran only allowed ships from a few countries such as India and Turkey to pass and planned to permit Japanese ships to transit as well.

An internal Pentagon assessment concluded that in the worst-case scenario, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for six months.

Sources say the U.S. military is deploying three more warships and approximately 2,500 Marines to the Middle East to provide Trump with more military options, including the possibility of launching operations to open the Strait of Hormuz, which would require air and naval forces along the Iranian coast. These forces are reportedly en route to their destination.

Options on Trump’s table also include deploying ground forces to the Halek Island, a vital node for Iran’s oil exports. This plan aims to seize the island as leverage to pressure Iran into restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz.