What Can We Expect from the Crypto Market After the SEC and CFTC Join Forces?

Original Title: Crypto Just Got Its Rulebook. Here’s Why That’s Only Half the Story.

Original Author: Crypto Unfiltered

Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly released an interpretive document, clearly stating for the first time that most crypto assets are not securities, and establishing a relatively clear classification framework. This change means that the industry’s long-standing “uncertainty variable” is being eliminated. Regulation is no longer a looming risk but a system of rules that can be understood and adapted to.

But as emphasized in this article, regulatory clarity is just a prerequisite, not the real turning point.

From market performance, Bitcoin has entered a range-bound phase after reaching all-time highs, reflecting a core contradiction: the infrastructure for institutional entry is in place, but capital allocation has not truly occurred; retail investor sentiment remains cautious, and the market lacks new forces to drive trends.

Meanwhile, a more significant change is brewing. On-chain assets like stablecoins and tokenized government bonds are rapidly developing, traditional financial assets are gradually being “brought on-chain,” and even stock tokenization is underway. As assets themselves become digital, the boundaries between traditional investment portfolios and crypto assets are gradually disappearing.

Therefore, what truly matters is not the rules themselves but the capital flows after their implementation, especially when wealth management institutions will start large-scale allocations.

The rules are now clear, and the path is becoming more defined. The next stage is when this game truly begins.

Below is the original text:

On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly issued a 68-page guidance document, officially classifying most crypto assets as non-securities. Among them, 16 tokens including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are explicitly identified as digital commodities. This is the first time in over a decade that developers, investors, and institutions in the U.S. have received the answer they’ve been waiting for—the rules.

Undoubtedly, this is a major event. But if you think regulatory clarity itself is the most important development, you might be missing the point.

The more critical question is: what happens next? The answer points to a corner of the financial system that most crypto investors rarely focus on: wealth management.

The Rulebook Finally Arrives

For years, the regulatory landscape in the U.S. can be summarized as: the SEC considers almost everything a security, and very few have the ability to effectively challenge this, given the high costs of opposing regulators.

This era is ending. The CLARITY Act was passed in the House last July with bipartisan support—294 to 134 votes; the GENIUS Act provided a clear framework for stablecoins; and now, the joint guidance from the SEC and CFTC introduces an official token classification system, distinguishing digital commodities, digital securities, and assets in between.

The guidance also introduces the so-called attach-and-detach principle: a token might be considered a security during early fundraising stages, but once the project operates independently, this attribute can be lifted. In other words, project teams now have a compliance pathway that was previously only theoretical.

The most important aspect here isn’t the technical details but the signal itself. Regulators are now answering questions directly, rather than avoiding them. This opens the door for a wave of compliant capital that had been waiting on clearer rules.

Why Bitcoin Is in a Range

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains in a wait-and-see mode. After breaking the $109,000 all-time high earlier this year and spending most of 2025 in the six-figure range, prices have pulled back, seeking a new equilibrium. The macro environment plays a dominant role here.

But the deeper issue lies in structural factors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed significant supply, but most holders are retail investors, not institutions. According to CoinShares, as of Q1 2025, institutional (13-F filers) Bitcoin ETF exposure was about $21 billion, down from $27 billion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, corporate treasury allocations are starting to include Bitcoin, but the average portfolio share remains below 1%.

This is the tension: the infrastructure for institutional entry is largely in place, but actual allocation has yet to happen.

Historically, retail funds have driven crypto bull markets, but they are largely absent now. Overall market sentiment remains cautious; cycles of fear and greed have not yet entered a sustained euphoria—usually a sign of market top. Before retail returns or institutions significantly increase their holdings, prices are likely to stay range-bound and highly sensitive to macro changes.

The Overlooked $100 Trillion Blind Spot

What most people underestimate is this part of the story.

The global wealth management industry oversees about $100 trillion in assets, most of which are still allocated within traditional portfolios. The classic 60/40 model (60% stocks, 40% bonds) has been the default for decades.

But this model faces substantial pressure. In the context of interest rate uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and long-term fiat devaluation, holding large proportions of bonds is increasingly questionable. Gold has already responded, and Bitcoin as well. The long-held assumption of 40% bond allocation is quietly becoming one of the most questioned parts of modern portfolios.

Yet, the wealth management industry’s response remains slow. Most Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) still manage portfolios similar to five years ago. This isn’t because they see no value in crypto; rather, compliance frameworks, platform capabilities, and client education still lag behind reality.

But change is underway. The focus has shifted from “what is Bitcoin?” to “how can I offer these assets to clients within a compliant framework?” The demand is real, and the infrastructure to support it is gradually being built.

Tokenization: The Next Key Chapter

Tokenization is the next critical chapter. The tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market has grown from about $5 billion in 2022 to over $24 billion today—a 380% increase over three years. Private credit dominates, followed by tokenized U.S. Treasuries. Major institutions like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Goldman Sachs are already issuing tokenized products on public blockchains.

The next step is stock tokenization. Robinhood launched a tokenized U.S. stock offering for European users in 2025. As regulatory clarity improves, similar products are likely to enter the U.S. market. Once this process accelerates, the line between traditional brokerage accounts and crypto wallets will begin to blur. Every portfolio will gradually evolve into a digital asset portfolio.

These assets can be traded 24/7, used as collateral in decentralized lending protocols, held, staked, lent out, and transferred without the need for traditional settlement delays. This isn’t a distant future but the direction the entire financial system is heading.

What to Watch Next

Regulatory clarity is important but should be viewed as a prerequisite, not the true catalyst. The real inflection point will come when wealth management firms start large-scale client capital allocations—and that moment has not yet arrived.

Until then, macro factors remain key variables. Liquidity conditions, the strength of the dollar, and interest rate expectations continue to be the core short-term influences on Bitcoin’s price. The fundamental logic is building, but when prices will react remains uncertain.

The rules are written. Now, it’s time to step into the game.