Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock Could Surge 30%+ — What Analysts Are Betting On

Shares of aerospace company Rocket Lab USA RKLB -6.53% ▼ have been volatile in recent weeks, making some investors cautious. But the bigger story hasn’t changed. The company continues to position itself as a key player in the fast-growing space industry, which is expected to expand significantly over the next decade. At the same time, Wall Street remains optimistic. On average, analysts see about 33% upside in RKLB stock, driven by strong growth in launch activity, expanding government contracts, and rising demand for satellite services.

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For context, Rocket Lab is a space launch company specializing in small orbital rockets and satellite solutions, best known for its Electron rocket and upcoming Neutron launch vehicle.

RKLB’s New Deals, Neutron Launch are Game-Changers

Rocket Lab recently grabbed investor attention after securing a $190 million contract from the U.S. Department of War for hypersonic test flights using its HASTE rocket. This is the company’s largest launch deal ever and pushes its total backlog past $2 billion. CEO Sir Peter Beck called it a “proud moment,” highlighting the company’s advanced technology, fast launch schedules, and HASTE production.

Another major catalyst for Rocket Lab is its Neutron rocket—a 43-meter, partially reusable vehicle built for satellite constellations and cargo missions. Recently, the company announced that Neutron’s key components, including the “Hungry Hippo” fairing and thrust structure, are ready for final assembly. Neutron is expected to launch in late 2026 or early 2027, positioning Rocket Lab as a direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and potentially boosting the company’s profitability as the only viable commercial alternative.

Analysts’ View on RKLB Stock

Most recently, four-star-rated analyst Gregory Pendy at Clear Street initiated coverage of RKLB with a Buy rating and an $88 price target—implying more than 30% upside from current levels. Pendy pointed to Rocket Lab’s in-house approach as a key strength, giving it an edge in areas where it competes with SpaceX.

He sees the new medium-lift Neutron rocket and the small-lift Electron rocket as the main drivers of growth. The reusable Neutron is now expected to launch in Q4 2026 after a manufacturing delay, potentially opening a larger market and higher revenue per launch than Electron. Pendy also expects Electron launches to rise to about 52 per year by 2030. Additionally, he highlighted Rocket Lab’s Space Systems segment as another growth area, which is increasingly securing contracts directly instead of subcontracting work.

Prior to that, four-star-rated analyst Andres Sheppard at Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated his Buy rating on RKLB with a price target of $85. Previously, Sheppard had highlighted Rocket Lab’s first Neutron launch as the stock’s most important catalyst. He also expressed strong confidence in the company’s proven launch record and its growth into a full-scale space infrastructure provider.

Is RKLB a Good Stock to Buy?

According to TipRanks, RKLB stock has received a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with nine Buys and four Holds assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Rocket Lab is $89.36, suggesting a potential upside of 33% from the current level.

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