He Xun Investment Advisor Feng Lushun: What's Next for Commercial Aerospace?

On March 23, Hexun Investment Advisor Feng Lushun stated that commercial spaceflight experienced a gap-down decline today. Does this gap indicate an accelerated top formation? Let’s analyze it through volume and price. First, let’s see how this downward move started. During the previous upward wave, the stock price hit a record high, and trading volume also reached a record high. We call this pattern “massive volume at a new high.” After such a volume spike at a new high, the subsequent bearish candle indicates major players are offloading. I drew a horizontal line at the midpoint of that bearish candle’s opening price. As long as the price can’t break above this line, all rebounds are opportunities to exit. After a rebound, the next step is a large-cycle pullback, specifically testing the 5-month moving average. Now, it has already broken below the 5-month line. Once below, it needs to establish a bottom between the 5-month and 10-month lines. Historically, after breaking below the 5-month line, each time it hits the 10-month line, a long lower shadow forms, indicating support from funds below, as the large cycle is being tested, retail investors are cutting losses, and institutions are entering. Now, it has reached the area between the 5-month and 10-month lines, which is conducive to forming a bottom, but the bottom requires a good small-cycle pattern. After the large cycle tests the 5-month line, on the small cycle side, the 5-day moving average must cross above the 10-day moving average, and MACD should turn red. To achieve this pattern, a strong bullish candle must appear, closing above the 5-day moving average. If it remains below the 5-day line, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages will never cross, and rebounds will only be minor. Currently, it has moved away from the 5-day line and formed a gap, making a rebound likely. After the market dropped to 3850 points today, a rebound is expected, but the key is how strong it will be. I don’t expect a strong rebound today; tomorrow is critical. I hope a bullish candle appears to stop the decline and break above the 5-day line, which would stabilize the situation. Otherwise, it remains unstable.