Former Russian Central Bank Official Warns: Fertilizer Crisis Will Trigger Global Food Price Shock Within 6 to 9 Months

The near blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is transforming an energy shock into a deeper supply chain crisis—disruptions in the fertilizer market could reshape global food prices later this year.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former advisor to the Russian Central Bank, recently warned on social media that the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered supply shocks, with impacts expected to appear in food prices within 6 to 9 months.

She pointed out that urea prices have risen 25% to 30% since February 28, and Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts with South America and Asia, with about 1 million tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf region.

Prokopenko emphasized that force majeure means contracts are legally terminated rather than postponed, and buyers must immediately seek alternative sources. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned last Friday that it will take at least six months, or even longer, for energy flows in the Gulf to return to full capacity, and stated that the world is facing its largest energy shock ever.

Fertilizer Market: The Next Domino in the Energy Shock

According to Bloomberg, macro strategist Simon White recently warned that food prices threaten to have as much secondary inflation effect as energy prices. He noted that during the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution in the 1970s, the impact of food price shocks was actually greater than that of oil shocks, and throughout the 1970s, food inflation contributed almost constantly more to the US CPI than energy did.

UBS analyst Claudio Martucci also warned last week about the chain reaction of energy shocks propagating into the fertilizer market, suggesting that the food supply chain could become the “next domino to fall” later this year.

Sulfur, chemicals, fertilizers, and diesel nearly permeate every aspect of agricultural production. If the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint, remains paralyzed for months, the risk of a resurgence in global food inflation will significantly increase.

Russia Seizes the Opportunity

Prokopenko pointed out that this fertilizer supply disruption presents a strategic opportunity for Russia.

Russia is a major supplier of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers, and together with Belarus, accounts for about 40% of the global potash market; Russia and Qatar are the top exporters of U.S. urea; annually, Russia exports over 45 million tons of fertilizer worldwide.

Currently, importers in Nigeria and Ghana have begun placing early Q3 orders with Russian suppliers. Prokopenko believes that Putin’s gains from this crisis may go far beyond short-term oil dollar revenues, representing a long-term strategic reshaping of market share.

Three Waves of Impact: From Fertilizers to Retail Food Prices

Prokopenko outlines a three-stage timeline for how this crisis will transmit to food prices:

First wave (current): Fertilizer prices soar, contract systems break down.

Second wave (Q3-Q4 2026): Planting areas shrink, agricultural yields decline, regions like Africa and South Asia, unable to pre-purchase, are hit hardest.

Third wave (2027): Food price inflation propagates to retail sectors in import-dependent economies.

Prokopenko believes that the fertilizer crisis will not immediately turn into a food crisis, but its effects will gradually become apparent later this year. This transmission pathway indicates that risks for agricultural commodities, fertilizer producers, and emerging markets heavily reliant on food imports warrant close attention.

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