Crude prices spike 53% month-to-date in March, kerosene surges

2026-03-23 08:41:33

Global crude oil prices ended the trading week of March 20, 2026, higher, rising by 8.22% to close at $112 per barrel in the commodity market.

Tracked by Brent Crude Futures, prices have climbed over 53% this month as tensions from the US-Iran War continue to raise concerns about oil supply.

At the centre of concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman, where shipping has been heavily disrupted amid Iran’s retaliation against the United States and Israel.

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So far this year, oil prices have risen over 83%, approaching the $118-high last seen in May 2022, as Israel launches fresh strikes on Tehran.

What commodity trading data is saying

Crude oil prices broke above the $93 per barrel resistance in early March 2026, a level last attained in September 2023.

Tracked by Brent Crude Futures, this breakout reflected intensified supply concerns across global energy markets.
These concerns deepened after the United States launched Operation “Epic Fury” against Iran on February 28, 2026, pushing prices sharply higher.

Brent crude, which started the year around $60–$61 per barrel, has since climbed above $100, driving up the cost of refined products like heating oil in the commodities market.

Month-to-date, Heating Oil has surged over 77% to above $4.6 per gallon, rising from about $2.8 per gallon at the start of the month.
Similarly, Kerosene Futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange have climbed over 60% to around ¥140,000 per kilolitre.

The global price surge is also affecting Nigeria, where petrol prices remain sensitive to imports despite gradual improvements in domestic refining capacity.

Get up to speed

Following the impact of the US-Iran war, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised the ex-depot gantry price for petrol from N1,245 to N1,275.

This latest increase on Saturday, 21st March 2026, follows the previous hike from N1,175 to N1,245, which was communicated to marketers in a notice on Friday night.
Bloomberg reports that Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals is receiving heightened inquiries from African countries, including South Africa, as governments seek alternative fuel supplies amid disruptions caused by the Iran conflict.

The International Energy Agency has also issued guidance, suggesting reduced air travel and other measures to curb jet fuel demand, as tensions escalate.

What you should know

Global crude oil prices are heading for a month-to-date rise of over 56%, similar to the surge seen in May 2020, driven by COVID-19 disruptions and supply cuts.

With prices already up 53% in March 2026, they could exceed $112 per barrel if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
Saudi Arabia’s oil officials have warned that a prolonged energy shock could push oil as high as $180 per barrel, amid concerns over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route, used by most oil tankers from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE to reach global markets.

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