Global coal trade landscape undergoes dramatic shift, Indonesia's sharp export decline triggers price center upward movement, these three cores poised for historic revaluation opportunities!

What is the motivation behind Indonesia’s policy shift to prioritize domestic needs?

According to Oriental Fortune Research Center on March 19, as the world’s largest coal exporter, the Indonesian government has recently implemented a series of policies, including significant reductions in production quotas and increased export tariffs to restrict coal exports. The annual coal production quota was lowered from 790 million tons in 2025 to 600 million tons, with some mining companies reducing output by 40%–70%. Under these policies, some miners have paused new spot coal exports, directly disrupting the global coal trade pattern.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo recently stated that coal, crude palm oil, and their derivatives cannot be exported until domestic demand is met, to ensure the security of the country’s energy and essential commodity supplies. He emphasized that Indonesia’s abundant natural resources must be used to benefit its people, and that resource management policies should prioritize national interests.

According to Guohai Securities research, in 2024, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports will account for 48% of global thermal coal exports (followed by Australia at 18% and Russia at 11%), making it the largest exporter. Over 60% of coal exports go to mainland China and India. In 2024, Indonesia exported approximately 239 million tons to mainland China, 108 million tons to India, and 38.55 million tons to the Philippines, accounting for 43%, 19%, and 7%, respectively.

Guojin Securities pointed out that under four core drivers, the coal price center is expected to rise long-term:

1. Geopolitical conflicts boosting energy premiums, with significant substitution effects. Geopolitical risk premiums are continuously inflating the coal sector, enhancing its inflation resistance.
2. Dual supply-side contraction with solid cost support. Westward expansion of coal mining has led to systemic increases in extraction costs, supporting higher coal prices.
3. Explosive demand in coal chemical industries, opening long-term growth space. Currently, ongoing and planned coal chemical projects have a potential coal consumption exceeding 800 million tons, more than double current actual demand. This increase will provide long-term demand support and growth engines for the coal industry.
4. “High dividends + resource revaluation” double boost. As global resource protectionism intensifies, coal, as a “ballast” for national energy security, faces systematic revaluation of its mineral resource value.

Market overview in related fields:

1. Thermal coal mining and export: As the core beneficiary of this cycle, the logic stems directly from reshaping global trade patterns. Indonesia, as the world’s largest thermal coal exporter,’s policy shift directly reduces spot supply in the international market. Guohai Securities reports that in 2024, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports will account for 48% of global exports, with over 60% going to mainland China and India. The Indonesian president’s clear demand that companies prioritize domestic needs before exporting effectively squeezes its export share. Meanwhile, risks of domestic capacity reduction and rising mining costs further support domestic coal prices. The widening price gap between imported and domestic coal (import costs higher than domestic) weakens the role of imports as a supplement, instead strengthening domestic thermal coal pricing power. For companies with stable production capacity and export operations, they benefit from the rising price center and can take the lead in market share competition.

2. Coking coal and coal chemical industries: Investment logic for coking coal focuses more on industry recovery and resource scarcity. Although current market momentum is led by thermal coal, coking coal, as an essential raw material for steelmaking, also benefits indirectly from the surge in coal chemical demand. More importantly, amid global energy security concerns, the strategic value of coal resources is highlighted. High-quality coking coal, as a scarce resource, faces a valuation system overhaul. The coal chemical sector is also experiencing historic opportunities. Under high oil prices, projects like coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefins become more economically viable, directly boosting demand for coal as a raw material. Data shows that ongoing and planned coal chemical projects have a potential coal consumption exceeding twice current actual demand. This incremental market will generate long-term orders for coal companies, smoothing out the cyclical fluctuations of traditional thermal power demand and providing new growth trajectories.

3. Coal power integration and comprehensive energy services: Coal power integration companies are the clearest and most resilient segment in this valuation reappraisal. With rising coal price centers, profit pressures on single thermal power companies increase, while integrated coal power firms hedge costs through self-generation and self-use. More critically, in the context of geopolitical conflicts elevating energy premiums, these companies are supported by the theme of “energy security.” They are not only stabilizers for power supply but also vital parts of national energy strategic security. Additionally, integrated energy service companies can adapt to trends toward cleaner, more efficient coal utilization, offering technological upgrades and value-added services to traditional coal enterprises, opening new profit growth points amid industry transformation. In an environment favoring high dividends and market certainty, coal power integration companies offer both dividend potential and operational stability, making them preferred for medium- to long-term capital allocation.

Risk warning: The industry information and corporate dynamics mentioned in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice; operational and market risks exist, please exercise caution.