❗️ The dollar has fallen, but the trend hasn't changed.

A week of decisions is behind us: the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of England have all been made, with no new releases today. The market is taking a breather.
Meanwhile, the narrative hasn't changed. The real sector—the DAX, FTSE, Dow, and Nikkei—is under pressure, and there's no sign of a reversal. What's noteworthy is that all four major central banks have been talking about the same thing this week: the complexity of the situation, bilateral risks, and high uncertainty. When regulators around the world are broadcasting the same message, it's a signal.
The main surprise was yesterday's dollar selloff.
Given that the market is pricing in zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, it would seem the dollar should hold. But we've seen the opposite. So far, it looks more like a technical relief than a trend change: oil is still high, the energy shock hasn't gone away, and the fundamental differential remains. If oil prices resume their rise or new headlines emerge about Iran, the pressure on the dollar will quickly return.