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3.24 Retrospective
High suppression [Taogu Ba]
8 Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (Gansu, Nonferrous Metals)
5 Hanjian Heshan (Beijing, Chemical Industry)
5 Zhangyue Technology (Beijing, AI Applications)
4 Shufa Gas (Shandong, Natural Gas)
4 Yasheng Group (Gansu, Agriculture)
4 Shandong Molong (Shandong, Oil)
5 Wangli Security (Zhejiang, Huawei, Home, Smart)
5 Sanfangxiang (Jiangsu, Low Price, Debt, Chemical)
7 Huadian Liaoning Energy (Liaoning, Green Power, Hydrogen Energy)
Recent high changes: 8, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 7, 3, 4, 5 (Wangli), 4 (Ningbo), 4 (Huadian), 5 (Sanfangxiang), 7 (Liaoning)
Node echelon: 7, 2, 1
Evaluation: Seven boards, definitely just watching without participating unless there’s a dip to buy
Second board is a short-term breakout of the high node, but it needs thematic support. If Liaoning’s clear rebound to this node is the core, then it can only be viewed as a stock rebound expectation, like Hefei Moron; photovoltaic is a good carrier for themes, but there are Zhongli and Tuori above, and stock selection feels a bit careless.
The first board doesn’t show a specific node, but based on the supply of the first board, it’s likely a rebound node. Many in the echelon, like HuaLiao 306, are in the same batch. Let’s see how it rebounds; I prefer thematic rebounds. Stock-specific rebounds are hard to drive sector effects and may serve as a liquidity trap for big players. Thematic rebounds, like regional rebounds such as Haixia, tend to cycle longer.
Top five five-day gains: Huadian Liaoning, Dashengda, Xuelang Environment, Jiemite, Hexin Instruments
Evaluation: 1 Electric, 3 Restructurings, 1 Quantum; more new faces, with electric leading the gains significantly, reflecting strong profit-taking effects in the market.
Top five ten-day gains: Zhongfu Shenying, Huadian Liaoning, Huadian Energy, ST Jingfeng, Shouhang New Energy
Evaluation: 3 main boards, 2 flexible, unchanged quantity, continued breakout environment. The chemical and power cycle is ongoing; how long can it last? It may not be related to high levels. Baiyin Nonferrous Metals is high, the sector is there, profit effects are driving, but A-shares are being sold off; fundamentally, it depends on whether the thematic logic can be falsified. If you think this big power and energy cycle is due to a declining market expectation, it might be ending soon, as the market just needs a pullback to bottom out and rebound. But if so, Huadian Liaoning today didn’t need to be so aggressive, indicating another perspective: policy support, which cannot be falsified. Recognizing this point, the index’s ups and downs are less relevant; it’s mainly about choosing offensive or defensive themes.
Seven boards
Huadian Liaoning: Yesterday showed some foreshadowing with non-active divergence, today released during bidding, which is reasonable; if today opens high during bidding, see if it’s a trap or not; many in the same batch hit the limit today, a classic “one gains, all rise” principle. This recognition level can be grasped during the first deep water.
Three boards
Zhongli Group: Solar pioneer, photovoltaic is a high-low energy switch for energy power, understandable, but your attitude is really speechless. If you want to do it, do it well—holding a pioneer position is just average strength. How can the little brothers below bear it? This top-line indicates that photovoltaic is just an energy tool. Today’s serious order leakage, tomorrow might not die, but if Tie Shan relies on it, it’s worth watching because Xiamen Engineering has been trending, and it’s a state-owned enterprise from Xiamen. It needs a shakeout; otherwise, it’s all a scam.
Second board
Xuelang Environment: No sealed orders, but watch out for second boards; be aware of the risk of being abandoned during the day. Similarly, if it doesn’t have a premium tomorrow, many opponents are just lying down.
Tuori New Energy: I don’t know, I thought I was promoting Tuori Ge, but he just left me behind.
Liaoning Energy: The only reason for this aggressive bidding is trusting Huadian Liaoning not to cheat. It’s better to zero-axis Huadian Liaoning. How many losses can it take? Today, it definitely didn’t give a good buy point.
Zhejiang New Energy: The expectation of New Energy rebounding from New Energy isn’t really gone.
First board: Feels like Huadian Liaoning’s rebound node. The chart looks like Mount Tai, the “Energy” character is a plus, right? If a hardness of three appears, that would be perfect.
Note: My short-term ideas are mostly learned from Yanbian Assassin, with some personal extensions.
Tomorrow’s opportunity watch:
Huadian Liaoning zero-axis or underwater dip buy
Liaoning’s second entry, considered a rebound position
Taishan’s first entry, Hunan Development, Kangxin—hard to recommend, depends on specific bidding performance and guidance.