US and Israel Prepare to Deploy Ground Forces; Trump Claims US-Iran Negotiations "May Be Getting Quite Close to a Deal"

1. [U.S. and Israel Prepare to Deploy Ground Forces] The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to deploy about 3,000 combat troops to the Middle East, but the United States has not officially decided to send ground forces to Iran. The Wall Street Journal reports that these troops come from a rapid response brigade under the 82nd Airborne Division and can be deployed within a day. Meanwhile, Israel has announced it will send troops to occupy a region in southern Lebanon.

Comment: The scale of 3,000 troops is not enough to launch a full-scale ground war against a country as large as Iran. Without a decision to send ground forces to Iran, the pre-positioning of elite airborne units is a clear warning to Iran: by demonstrating the capability to intervene at any time, the U.S. aims to deter potential aggressive retaliation or attacks. Hezbollah in Lebanon is considered Iran’s most important regional ally in the Middle East. Israel’s ground operations in southern Lebanon are highly likely to provoke a substantial response from Iran. Therefore, the U.S. troop deployment and Israel’s northern operations are not isolated events: the U.S. military’s presence is likely a response to possible retaliatory strikes from Iran or pro-Iranian forces following Israel’s actions in southern Lebanon—playing the role of Israel’s “backer.”

2. [Trump Claims US-Iran Negotiations “Close to a Deal”] On Tuesday, March 24, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is communicating with the “right people,” and Iran “wants to reach an agreement.” He also claimed that Iran “no longer has a leadership,” and said the U.S. has “achieved great success” on Iran. Trump said the U.S. is negotiating with Iran and that U.S. forces have “freedom of action” over Tehran. He also stated that Iran has “begun rational communication” and has agreed to “never develop nuclear weapons.”

Comment: Trump’s unilateral declaration that “a deal is close” is essentially framing the narrative—portraying the U.S. as the dominant party that is “strong enough to fight and willing to negotiate.” However, Iran has never confirmed these claims. The statements about “agreeing never to develop nuclear weapons” and “beginning rational communication” are likely political performances by Trump, serving domestic political needs rather than reflecting diplomatic reality. Holding a gun in one hand and shaking hands in the other, proclaiming victory—this is not diplomacy, but performance. The real danger is that when the performance ends, the gun might really go off.

3. [U.S. Private Equity Market Brewing Crisis] Private equity giant Apollo has paused redemptions from its main credit funds. Investors attempted to withdraw $1.6 billion, about 11.2% of the fund’s assets, more than double the firm’s 5% redemption limit. Additionally, Ares Management, another major player, has set a 5% redemption cap after receiving redemption requests totaling $1.2 billion.

4. [Arm Enters Chip Battle] Arm will begin selling its own chips for the first time. Previously, this chip architecture design company licensed its processor architectures and IP cores to chip companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, earning royalties from each chip using its designs. Arm announced that its new AGI CPU, a 136-core data center processor designed for Agentic AI workloads (with Meta as the first customer and co-developer, and OpenAI, Cerebras, Cloudflare, SAP among the initial deployment partners), will be manufactured by TSMC using 3nm process technology, with full mass production expected in late 2026.

5. [U.S. Accelerates Moon Base Construction] NASA announced it has adjusted its plans to send astronauts back to the Moon by 2028. Jared Isaacman, NASA’s new head, stated that the lunar space station project has been “paused,” and instead, a $20 billion lunar base will be built on the Moon’s surface.