In the past, European shipping lines had a high probability of failing to raise prices during off-seasons, so investors are advised to implement proper risk management.

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-24T22:35:18+00:00

Against the backdrop of escalating Middle East conflicts, shipping companies' rate increases have bolstered bullish sentiment in futures. However, historical spot market data shows that rate increases during traditional off-seasons have limited success rates, with actual realized prices falling far short of announced increases. Investors should pay close attention to market volatility risks and carefully manage their positions and capital allocation.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-24 22:35:18

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Senior Analyst Cao Renzhi from Yong’an Futures Research Center Chemical Sector states that, amid the ongoing escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, shipping companies’ price hikes have strengthened bullish sentiment in futures markets. However, based on past spot market trends, traditional off-season shipping companies have limited success in raising freight rates.

Looking back at the European route spot market after the 2025 Spring Festival, most shipping companies issued freight increase notices in early March for shipments in the first half of April, with declared increases ranging from $3,200 to $4,000 per FEU. However, actual prices fell sharply to around $2,000 per FEU. In late March, the OA Alliance shipping companies issued notices for the second half of April, with declared increases between $3,000 and $3,500 per FEU. The Gemini, P3, and MSC alliances did not follow the increase, and the final actual prices settled around $2,150 per FEU.

Based on current conditions, the fundamentals of the off-season remain unchanged this year. The success of individual shipping companies’ price hikes remains to be seen. Investors should be cautious of market volatility and manage their positions and funds carefully.

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