Charting the Global Economy: US Jobs, Inflation Send Mixed Signals for Fed

Vince Golle and Molly Smith

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM GMT+9 3 min read

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) – An unusually busy week of economic data in the US sent conflicting signals for the Federal Reserve.

January payrolls rose by the most in over a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, allaying concerns that the job-market weakness of 2025 carried over into the new year. But inflation data at the end of the week was relatively tame, boosting bets that the Fed will deliver more interest-rate cuts this year.

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In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era in an outcome that sent stock prices and bond yields soaring.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

Employers added 130,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That followed revisions to the prior year, which showed the average monthly pace of job growth last year was a fraction of what was initially estimated.

US inflation was fairly mild last month, defying concerns for a bigger jump and boosting expectations of more Fed rate cuts. January inflation readings have been strong in recent years, often beating expectations as companies tend to raise their prices at the start of the year. Treasuries rallied in relief as the core figure was relatively tame and came in line with the median projection.

Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2017, driven by higher defaults among low-income and young borrowers.

Asia

Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party achieved the biggest post-war victory for a single-party in a general election in Japan, an extraordinary transformation of fortunes for a party that was on the ropes last summer before getting behind the nation’s first ever female premier in October.

Bank of America Corp. nearly doubled its prediction for Taiwan’s economic growth this year, adding to a slew of upgrades even after a rip-roaring 2025 propelled by the AI buildout.

Singapore’s top 20% households are richer than all the other families combined, a reflection of the extent of wealth inequality in the city state.

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Europe

The UK economy grew less than forecast in the fourth quarter as business investment shrank and services stagnated, adding to pressure on embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Gross domestic product rose 0.1% for a second straight quarter. Construction shrank the most in four years, while services failed to grow for the first time since the end of 2023.

Russia’s crude shipments are holding steady in the face of mounting pressures on its critical oil trade, but the steeper discounts that are keeping the barrels flowing have hammered the Kremlin’s revenues.

Hungary’s headline inflation rate plunged to the lowest level in almost eight years in January, strengthening expectations that the central bank can start cutting the European Union’s highest key interest rate.

Emerging Markets

Mexico inflation accelerated in January, supporting the central bank’s decision to pause a record easing cycle last week while marking up headline and core estimates into next year.

India’s inflation remained relatively benign under a revised data series published Thursday, bolstering the case for the central bank to keep interest rates on hold. The revision follows questions over the central bank’s inflation forecasts, which last year repeatedly overestimated price pressures and may have supported a tighter policy stance.

World

Uganda, Georgia, Mauritius, Serbia and Peru held interest rates steady. Kenya, Zambia, Egypt and Russia cut rates.

–With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Irina Anghel, Andrew Atkinson, Marton Kasnyik, Julian Lee, Yian Lee, Faris Mokhtar, Ishika Mookerjee, Sakura Murakami, Anup Roy, Augusta Saraiva, Catarina Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Gonzalo Soto, Shruti Srivastava, Alex Vasquez and Chien-Hua Wan.

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