Express Delivery Companies Issue Dense Price Adjustment Notices to Offset Rising Fuel Costs

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues to impact the global transportation system. As tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil trade, international oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel. This has led to domestic market adjustments, and at 24:00 on March 23, the sixth round of domestic fuel price adjustments for this year took place, returning to the “9 yuan era.” Market expectations suggest that oil prices will continue to rise further.

Express Delivery Companies Face Increased Transportation Costs

The sharp rise in oil prices has driven up logistics and transportation costs. Coupled with ongoing policies to curb internal competition within the express delivery industry, prices have been adjusted multiple times this year, making price hikes almost a necessity for all courier companies. On March 23, coinciding with the sixth domestic fuel price adjustment this year, five major courier companies—ZTO, YTO, STO, Yunda, and Jitu—jointly announced a price adjustment notice. Guizhou became the first province to implement the new prices after the adjustment.

All five companies’ notices indicate that due to rising fuel costs increasing transportation expenses, to ensure healthy and stable development, and based on rigid cost structures, starting from March 23, 2026, in Guizhou Province, delivery prices will be adjusted. Customers are advised to confirm prices with local branches before placing orders, and all existing inventory will be compensated at the new rates.

The notice specifies that the shipping fee per label in Guizhou will increase by 0.05 yuan, and the minimum courier fee will rise to 1.2 yuan per parcel. All local courier brands will implement the new prices simultaneously, with no room for differentiation.

Multiple Regions Announce Courier Price Increases

Previously, in the context of industry efforts to curb internal competition, Sichuan was the first to initiate courier price adjustments. On March 10, Jitu, ZTO, YTO, STO, and other courier companies announced that, starting March 11, in response to or in compliance with “anti-internal competition” policies, courier prices within Sichuan would be adjusted based on company costs. All discounts on delivery fees across the region were canceled. These five franchised courier companies synchronized their price increases across Sichuan, raising terminal delivery fees by 0.1 yuan per parcel and increasing delivery charges by 0.1 to 0.3 yuan per parcel.

Subsequently, other regions such as Yiwu, Yunnan, and Jiangxi also announced courier price hikes. Yiwu’s franchised couriers issued notices of increased delivery fees, and some cities added special delivery charges due to rising delivery costs, with an extra 1 yuan per parcel for shipments to Beijing and Shanghai starting March 13. On March 17, courier companies in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other areas announced further price adjustments, canceling some discounts and adjusting parcel prices based on costs; Jiangxi increased charges by 0.1 yuan per parcel for low-cost outlets and customers below the minimum cost threshold.

Since Q4 2025, the unit price in the courier industry has been steadily rising. For example, as of the end of February 2026, Shentong’s per-parcel price increased from 1.97 yuan last year to 2.44 yuan, a 24% increase; YTO rose about 15% to 2.4 yuan; Yunda increased about 18% to 2.25 yuan.

Industry Profitability Diverges

For the courier industry, which heavily relies on road transportation, the recent surge in fuel prices may temporarily increase operating costs or lead to profitability disparities across the industry.

Huatai Securities pointed out that, in the short term, every 10 yuan increase in oil prices raises per-parcel costs by approximately 0.012 yuan. Franchise courier companies mainly bear costs related to delivery fees, transportation, and transfer. “Tongda” logistics costs account for about 20% of total costs. If the fleet is fully self-operated, fuel costs make up roughly 30% of transportation expenses. Overall, fuel costs account for about 6% of total courier costs.

According to Huatai Securities’ estimates, if international oil prices rise from $60 to $80–$100 per barrel, the prices of aviation kerosene and domestic diesel are expected to increase by approximately 1,267 yuan/ton and 2,534 yuan/ton, respectively. This would raise airline unit costs by about 7.3% and 14.7%, and long-distance road freight rates by about 3.7% and 7.5%, with less than 1.5% impact on courier prices. Due to weak demand and increased competition, road and courier companies have limited ability to pass on these costs.

For e-commerce courier companies like those in the “Tongda” system, the average cost per parcel was about 0.4 yuan in 2024. Assuming fuel costs account for 30%, a 10% increase in fuel prices would raise per-parcel costs by 0.012 yuan. If oil prices rise from $60 to $80 or $100 per barrel, domestic diesel prices are expected to increase by 12% and 24%, respectively, raising courier costs by 0.014 and 0.028 yuan per parcel, representing 0.7% and 1.3% of the parcel price.

Huatai Securities’ research suggests that leading logistics companies can somewhat pass on fuel surcharges to customers. However, franchise and small logistics firms face fierce price competition and oversupply, making it difficult to effectively transfer fuel costs, as merchants are sensitive to logistics prices.

“Should geopolitical tensions escalate and oil prices remain high, the ability to pass costs on will determine profit disparities in the medium to long term. Leading companies with high freight rates and high service quality will have stronger price transmission and better long-term profitability. Conversely, e-commerce courier clients with lower freight rates are more price-sensitive, making it harder for companies to establish effective pricing mechanisms,” Huatai Securities stated.

Industry experts expect courier unit prices to continue recovering. Longjiang Securities noted that the “anti-internal competition” trend will persist, and courier prices are expected to maintain the year-over-year improvement trend seen since Q4 2025. Profits for e-commerce couriers will recover, with leading firms performing better structurally. Direct-operated courier services will continue optimizing their product mix, increasing high-value services to drive profit growth, with net profits in Q1 2026 expected to grow steadily.