Suddenly, a 35% surge! Iranian missiles hit again!

Energy prices surge again!

This afternoon (March 19), Europe’s benchmark natural gas—Dutch TTF natural gas futures for April delivery—spiked by 35%, reaching a high of €74 per megawatt-hour, the highest since late December 2022.

Brent crude oil futures also rose over 8%, breaking through $111 per barrel.

Earlier, tensions in Iran escalated significantly, with Israel launching an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, followed by Iran attacking Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas facility, causing severe damage to the world’s largest gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant—the Pearl GTL project.

Additionally, Kuwait Petroleum Company announced on Thursday that a set of production units at the MINA AL-AHMADI refinery was hit by a drone attack, causing a small fire.

According to CCTV News, early on the 19th (local time), the Qatar Ras Laffan natural gas facility was again struck by missiles. Earlier that day, Iran claimed to have attacked oil facilities in Gulf countries hosting Iranian enemies. Ras Laffan Industrial City is home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facility, accounting for about 20% of global LNG production.

Natural gas prices surge 35%

Today, European natural gas prices surged again, with Dutch TTF futures for April delivery soaring by 35%, reaching €74 per megawatt-hour. As of press time, the gains narrowed to 25.5%, trading at €68.61 per megawatt-hour. Since the outbreak of conflict with Iran, European natural gas prices have increased by over 100%, and Brent crude oil futures have risen by more than 50%.

Concerns over supply disruptions and attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure have driven energy stocks higher across Europe on Thursday. As of press time, Equinor rose 8%, Harbour Energy up over 4%, BP increased nearly 3%, TotalEnergies up 2%, Eni up 1.5%, and Repsol Energy nearly 1%.

Earlier, Qatar Energy reported that several LNG facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City were hit by missiles, causing large fires and extensive damage. The industrial city hosts a plant that typically accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supply. Although transportation was halted earlier this month due to the war, the latest attacks could keep European and Asian natural gas prices elevated for a longer period.

Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facility was also shut down after falling debris from intercepted attacks. U.S. President Trump posted on social media that if Qatar’s LNG facilities are attacked again, the U.S. will retaliate.

Bloomberg notes that the full extent of damage and repair timelines remain unclear. While most of the Middle Eastern LNG exports are purchased by Asian countries, any ongoing supply disruptions will affect the global supply balance—keeping prices high worldwide.

For Europe, this escalation comes at a delicate moment: the region has just come through winter, with gas reserves nearly depleted. This means Europe will need to buy more LNG this summer to replenish stocks, competing with Asian buyers for already reduced supplies.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said, “Qatar’s LNG supply could be interrupted for months, or even years in the worst case. The crisis in the natural gas market won’t end just because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”

Earlier this month, Ras Laffan was shut down due to an Iranian drone attack—its first supply interruption in three decades. Now, after Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, Iran has retaliated, with the complex suffering further damage, reportedly extensive, making recovery even more unlikely, according to Qatar sources.

Saudi refinery attacked

According to Bloomberg, a drone fell on a refinery on Saudi Arabia’s west coast, after Iran targeted the facility the day before, indicating increased attacks on regional energy assets.

The Samref refinery, jointly owned by Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil, is located in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Saudi Defense Ministry said a ballistic missile heading toward the port (a key oil export route) was intercepted. Iran previously stated that after attacks on its natural gas fields by Israel and the U.S., the Samref refinery was one of the energy facilities targeted.

Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and the UAE’s gas fields have also been attacked. Yanbu is critical for Saudi Arabia and the oil market. After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and limited transportation through that route, Saudi Arabia has increased oil exports from the port.

Latest reports from Reuters indicate that Yanbu has resumed crude oil loading, according to two sources.