Boao Forum for Asia Releases Flagship Report: Most Asian Stock Indices Expected to Maintain Upward Trend This Year

On March 24, the Boao Asia Forum 2026 Annual Conference released the flagship reports “Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026” and “Sustainable Asia and the World 2026 — Asia’s Sustainable Development in the Face of Global Transformation” (hereinafter collectively referred to as “the Reports”), providing a comprehensive analysis of the trend changes and growth prospects of the Asian economy, as well as progress in green and low-carbon transformation.

The reports mention that the GDP share of Asian economies in the world will continue to rise, projected to increase from 49.2% in 2025 to 49.7% in 2026 based on purchasing power parity. Asia remains the main engine of global economic growth, with an expected growth rate of 4.5% in 2026.

Five Major Trend Changes in Asia’s Economy

“Current data shows that Asia’s economic growth rate reached 4.7% in 2025, demonstrating the resilience of Asia’s economic development,” said Zhang Yuyan, Dean of the School of International Political Economy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences University. The reports forecast that Asia’s economic growth in 2026 will be slightly lower than in 2025, mainly due to profound impacts from internal Asian factors and the international environment.

Zhang Yuyan stated that the current development of Asia’s economy shows five major trend changes: digital intelligence empowering Asia’s economy and trade; low-carbon development aiding green industrial transformation; population aging bringing multi-dimensional impacts; external environment increasingly affecting regional economic and trade relations; and regional cooperation strongly supporting Asia’s economic development and integration.

The reports indicate that despite multiple uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and supply chain “de-risking” affecting global trade, the foundation of intra-regional trade integration in Asia remains solid, with China and ASEAN continuing to serve as regional “stabilizers.”

In financial markets, most Asian stock indices continued to rise in 2025. The reports project that in 2026, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, Asian financial markets will face significant uncertainties, but most stock indices are still expected to trend upward. Many currencies are likely to continue appreciating.

“With inflation gradually decreasing, most Asian economies are expected to further ease their monetary policies, but uncertainties are also rising,” the reports state. The easing of inflationary pressures provides policy space for more economies to cut interest rates, while global economic risks, especially international trade uncertainties, require stronger monetary policy support.

From an investment attraction perspective, Asia remains the most favored region for foreign direct investment, with China and ASEAN being the most attractive economies for foreign capital. Meanwhile, Asian economies are gradually shifting from “capital recipients” to “outward investors,” actively engaging in foreign investment.

Accelerating the Interconnection of Fast Payment Systems

As vital financial infrastructure supporting trade, investment, and regional cooperation, the global cross-border payment system is undergoing profound restructuring. The reports show that in Asia, bilateral local currency swap networks continue to expand, cross-border QR codes and fast payment systems are increasingly interconnected, and new technologies such as digital currencies and blockchain are rapidly being promoted. Growth in local currency settlement and diversification of payment currencies have become clear trends.

Specifically, the Chinese renminbi has become China’s primary settlement currency for external payments and receipts. The ASEAN region is promoting regional financial integration through local currency settlement frameworks, with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand’s central banks adopting a unified “local currency transaction framework” to actively advance regional financial integration. Bilateral local currency swap networks continue to expand, facilitating trade settlement in local currencies and enhancing regional financial stability.

Meanwhile, new technologies like blockchain are becoming key drivers of cross-border payment diversification. The reports mention that as regulatory policies for stablecoins become clearer, their application in cross-border payments is gaining attention, but development still faces inherent flaws and systemic risks, necessitating strict regulation and international cooperation.

The reports suggest that future efforts should accelerate the interconnectedness of fast payment systems, promote interoperability of technical standards and rules, establish multi-layered regulatory coordination and mutual recognition mechanisms, and steadily advance the application of emerging technologies in cross-border payment infrastructure to enhance resilience and inclusiveness.

Asia Shifting from AI Follower to Leader

“AI” has become a major keyword in this year’s reports. The reports show that Asian economies are transforming from AI followers to leaders, driven by large digital populations, abundant application scenarios, and systematic policy support, reshaping the global AI innovation landscape.

Chen Lan, Partner and Head of Research at Deloitte China, stated that Asian economies generally have high-density digital user bases and complete manufacturing ecosystems. This unique advantage promotes efficient feedback mechanisms in AI development, from application scale expansion to large-scale data accumulation and continuous model optimization, forming a “scale-driven technology maturity” cycle that enables rapid deployment of AI in various applications across Asia.

Currently, AI development in Asia exhibits a “multi-tiered, differentiated path with strong cooperation potential.” Leading countries like China have mature full-chain capabilities and large-scale implementation; Japan and South Korea focus on high-end manufacturing and industrial automation; Singapore plays a role as a governance demonstration and platform hub; emerging economies like India and Indonesia leverage market potential and application scenarios as breakthroughs.

The reports believe that, leveraging regional complementary capabilities, rich digital application scenarios, and systematic R&D and policy coordination, Asia has the opportunity to build a “multi-node, interconnected, collaborative” regional AI innovation network, gaining greater influence in the global AI industry chain, innovation ecosystem, and governance discussions.

“Asia’s economic integration and sustainable development will inevitably face many difficulties and challenges, but as long as all parties remain confident, united, and courageous, they can further promote high-quality economic growth and create a new development pattern supporting the ‘Asian Century,’” said Zhang Jun, Secretary-General of the Boao Asia Forum.

(Source: Shanghai Securities Journal)