Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference Releases Flagship Report: Asia Remains World's Primary Engine of Economic Growth, China's Development Opportunities Draw Significant Attention

Securities Times Reporter Wu Shaolong

On March 24, the Boao Asia Forum 2026 Annual Conference held a press briefing and released two flagship reports: “Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026” and “Sustainable Asia and World 2026.”

The “Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026” predicts that Asia’s GDP will account for 49.7% of the world’s economy in 2026, up from 49.2% in 2025, with an expected growth rate of 4.5% in 2026.

4.5% growth rate

Serving as the ballast of the global economy

The report states that due to increased uncertainty in international trade, rising global debt pressures, and escalating geopolitical risks, the global economic growth will slow down in 2026. In this context, Asia’s economic growth may also slightly decelerate, with an estimated growth rate of 4.5%, lower than 4.7% in 2025. Meanwhile, Asia’s share of the global economy continues to rise, remaining the main growth engine of the world. In current US dollars, it is projected to increase from 36.1% in 2025 to 36.3% in 2026; based on purchasing power parity, it is expected to rise from 49.2% in 2025 to 49.7% in 2026.

“4.5% is already a high growth rate,” said Zhang Yuyan, Dean of the School of International Political Economy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences University. Despite various unforeseen shocks, Asia’s economic resilience remains very strong.

In terms of financial markets, the report indicates that in 2025, most Asian stock indices continued to rise. Most Asian currencies appreciated. The yields on ten-year government bonds in Asia declined more than they rose. Looking ahead to 2026, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, U.S. foreign policy, and geopolitical risks, Asian financial markets will face significant uncertainty, but most stock indices are still expected to remain on the rise. Most currencies may continue their appreciation trend. The yields on ten-year government bonds will show significant divergence. The banking sector is expected to operate relatively stably, with overall manageable risks.

“Digital + Green”

Activating dual growth engines

Facing the wave of global economic transformation, both reports agree that digital transformation and green development will become the main engines of Asia’s sustainable development.

The “Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026” mentions that developing countries in Asia are advancing faster in digital transformation than other regions, with the digital economy accelerating and its total volume continuously increasing. Digital trade is also expanding. Additionally, to achieve low-carbon development, many Asian countries have set targets to reduce carbon emissions and are actively promoting green energy and economic restructuring. Efforts to achieve carbon neutrality not only help curb global temperature rise but also bring tangible economic benefits, becoming new drivers of sustainable growth in Asia.

Hu Jianyu, Partner and Head of Sustainability and Emerging Technologies Assurance at Deloitte China, believes that combining digitalization with sustainability can empower Asian industrial products with deeper attributes and is a key factor for long-term stability and development in Asia.

The “Sustainable Asia and World 2026” report suggests that to support Asia’s energy transition, a comprehensive system led by policy coordination, market mechanisms, financial tools, and international cooperation is needed. Asian countries should continuously improve the top-level design of energy transition, strengthen strategic alignment, planning, and action coordination to enhance overall quality and efficiency; explore regional integrated electricity and carbon markets, establish multi-level trading mechanisms, and use price signals to guide the optimal allocation of green resources; innovate financial instruments and investment models for energy transition, directing diverse capital flows into key areas, and transforming feasible projects into investable assets; build platforms for South-South energy cooperation and technology sharing, promote capacity building and knowledge transfer, and gather regional strength to accelerate Asia’s green energy transition.

China’s Opening Up Brings Multiple Opportunities

As a vital part of Asia’s economy, China’s development trends attract close attention.

Zhang Jun, Secretary-General of the Boao Asia Forum, stated at the press conference that China’s development prospects remain a key focus for forum participants. This year marks the start of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and the first year since Hainan Province implemented a free trade port with closed-loop management. The annual conference features topics such as “China Economic Outlook,” “Invest in China, Share the Future,” and a global free trade port development forum, facilitating discussions that help guests better understand China and Hainan, and seize new opportunities for investment and win-win cooperation.

Sang Baichuan, Director of the Institute of Open Economy at the University of International Business and Economics, said that in the process of regional economic integration in Asia, many highlights attract attention, but there is still a lack of a large-scale final consumer market within the region. China’s large market advantage can further expand through greater opening-up, providing more development opportunities for Asian economies and the world. The internal cohesion of Asia’s economy will be further strengthened.

Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), stated that China’s 14th Five-Year Plan offers a certain institutional certainty in an era of highly uncertain geopolitical conditions, providing a safeguard for the world. China’s contribution to global economic growth is expected to remain around 30%.

Justin Yifu Lin, former Chief Economist of the World Bank and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, believes that China still has an annual growth potential of about 8% before 2035. Its core strengths include a large talent pool, a vast market, a complete industrial system, and the effective combination of a well-functioning market and proactive government.