US Pushes for Ceasefire with Iran, Boosting Market Optimism! Oil Prices and US Dollar Fall Together, US Stock Futures, Gold and Silver Rise in Response

CNBC Finance APP has learned that after news emerged that the U.S. Trump administration is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations, market optimism has increased, with oil prices and the dollar falling, while U.S. stock futures, gold, and silver both rose. Data shows that as of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell nearly 4%, to $88.89 per barrel, after briefly dropping to $87.82 per barrel earlier in the day. The dollar index declined 0.24% to 99.20. The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose: Dow futures up 0.73%, S&P 500 futures up 0.75%, Nasdaq futures up 0.86%. Spot gold increased by 1.36%, to $4,535 per ounce; silver spot prices rose nearly 2%, to $72.61 per ounce. Notably, gold spot prices closed Tuesday up 3.14%, ending nine consecutive trading days of decline.

Reports indicate that the U.S. has proposed a negotiation plan with Iran containing “15 conditions,” including Iran lifting its current nuclear capabilities, promising not to develop nuclear weapons, and banning uranium enrichment on its soil. In exchange, Iran may receive a comprehensive lifting of international sanctions and U.S. support for its civilian nuclear projects. It is understood that the U.S. is considering pushing for a one-month ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations on these terms. The U.S. is reportedly discussing with multiple mediators the possibility of high-level peace talks with Iran as early as this week, but is still awaiting Iran’s response.

Trump appears to be seeking serious negotiations with Iran while also keeping the option to act at any time. Reports suggest the U.S. plans to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, said, “In this news-driven market, crude oil remains the leading indicator. Reports of a possible one-month ceasefire are easing the most extreme pricing scenarios and concerns about demand destruction. Although details are still limited and news is evolving, signs of an exit path are reducing some risk premiums in the market.”

Additionally, U.S. President Trump hinted that Iran sent a “gift” to show sincerity during negotiations, related to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to sources, Iran has begun charging transit fees to some commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, marking its latest move to strengthen control over this critical energy maritime route. However, Iran stated that non-hostile foreign ships can still pass through the waterway according to its regulations.

Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said, “Everything ultimately depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So even if we hear of ‘good progress’ in negotiations this weekend, if the strait remains highly restricted, that’s still not enough.”

Beyond geopolitical risks, Maley also pointed out that issues in the private credit market have not eased, and ignoring these problems “is not a good idea.”

The two giants in private credit—Ares Management (ARES.US) and Apollo Global Management (APO.US)—are restricting investor redemptions and even preventing withdrawals of half of their requested amounts, indicating that the $1.8 trillion market pressure is intensifying.

Macquarie Group analyst Thierry Wizman believes that any optimism that the Middle East war will end before the U.S. first attempts to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz or gain more leverage in negotiations with Iran is misplaced. He said, “The longer oil prices stay high, the more central banks will feel the need to tighten policy.”

He also noted that the financial pressure caused by hawkish policies aimed at supply-side inflation is much greater than those responding to demand-driven inflation. Due to the Middle East conflict, U.S. March business activity growth slowed to its lowest in nearly a year, while payments for raw materials and other inputs increased.

Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls of PIMCO said, “If this proves to be only a short-term disturbance reflected in current market pricing, the baseline scenario still assumes moderate global economic growth. However, if the disturbance lasts longer, it will pose more severe challenges and increase the risk of a global recession.”