Continue tracking gold's price movement $XAU $PAXG

First, let's look at the fundamentals
The main long-term logic for gold focuses on just one thing
Real interest rates
Gold has a long-term inverse relationship with real interest rates
Real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation rate
Oil driving high inflation, nominal interest rates not rising ( no rate hikes maintaining status quo )
Real interest rates are declining, therefore gold's long-term logic remains bullish
To understand a stop to rate cuts or even rate hikes, you need to look at the reason. If it's like 2011 when loose monetary policy stopped due to economic recovery, that's a bull-to-bear reversal. But if rate hikes are due to inflation, like the previous two oil crises, gold experiences sharp short-term declines but quickly recovers its price, then continues to rise.
Then from a technical perspective
Looking at the hourly chart, there's a large-scale blunting, but we say the end needs a blunting, meaning we still need to decline to around 4200.
Figure 1
Then looking at the 30-minute K-line, what we see now can be understood as C-4, which we've explained multiple times in previous articles. There must be a C-4 to pull the DIF up, and it must cross above the 0 axis. The crossing above is to prepare for another decline.
Figure 2
This C-4 should be a zigzag wave
First dip slightly, then one more large rally (around 4%). After that, the decline begins, with the target around 4200. This movement is the C-5 wave.
This is likely the result of a brief skirmish between the US and Iran in the strait.
When it declines to around 4200, the US and Iran will likely begin formal negotiations with high probability. At that point, gold begins to rise. We don't know if it's 4B or the 5th wave.
However, gold will rebound above 4800. #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅