Today's biggest news is that the United States has already or is seeking to negotiate with Iran. Current information from multiple channels suggests a possible one-month ceasefire first, during which at least third-party ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz smoothly. Of course, this also benefits from Trump's TACO, allowing both sides to remain calmer. The legendary focus of negotiations is still getting Iran to abandon nuclear weapons, but Iran has not yet acknowledged that negotiations have begun.

Influenced by the negotiation news, WTI crude oil prices fell below $90. Although there's a possibility the war could end, Reuters and Ipsos polls found Trump's approval rating has dropped to 36%, the lowest since returning to the White House. Moreover, 61% of respondents oppose American airstrikes on Iran—Trump's situation is getting difficult now.

However, as long as there are no new exchanges of fire in the near term, even without Iran announcing that negotiations have begun, a temporary ceasefire could still be traded by risk markets, which would help greatly in easing sentiment.

Looking back at BTC data, the turnover rate is not good, and investor sentiment remains normal. People may have already gotten used to the volatility caused by war. Currently, BTC price is hovering above 70k. Now chips are also accumulating near this level, and earlier investors show no signs of panic. But it's worth noting whether 70k can truly stabilize in the near term above this level.

The current focus is still on the trajectory of the war. If it ends completely, it will return to the tariff issue. However, the longer it drags on, the worse it is for risk markets.