Sri Lanka Holds Key Rate at 7.75%

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The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7.75% at its March 2026 meeting, maintaining its current stance amid uncertainties stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Headline inflation remained low at 1.6% in February, well below the 5% target, providing room to absorb the impact of higher domestic energy prices following a surge in global energy costs and trade disruptions. Inflation is now expected to reach the target in Q2 2026, earlier than previously projected, and stabilize around that level thereafter. Meanwhile, economic activity remained resilient, with GDP expanding 5.0% in 2025 despite disruptions from Cyclone Ditwah, while early 2026 indicators point to a strong recovery. However, prolonged geopolitical tensions could weigh on growth. The Sri Lankan rupee stayed broadly stable, although some depreciation pressures emerged following the escalation of the Middle East conflict.

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