Hormuz Shipping Tracking: Multiple Vessels Successfully Transit, Iran Beginning New Strategy?

Industry insiders point out that Iran appears to be adopting a new “precision strategy” targeting the crucial Strait of Hormuz, allowing only specific ships to pass through this vital waterway. Of course, even if this approach restores some shipping through the Strait, analysts note that the global oil market may still be underestimating the risk of further supply shortages related to this new strategy.

Kpler Chief Analyst in the US, Matt Smith, said that oil tankers transporting Iranian crude oil are still passing through this maritime bottleneck—this waterway is critical to about one-third of global seaborne oil transportation. Additionally, a few ships permitted by Iran are also passing through the strait.

Kpler’s comprehensive maritime data platform MarineTraffic, which provides real-time ship tracking and navigation updates worldwide, posted on X platform Tuesday that Iran seems to be implementing a “selective vessel passage” strategy in the strait, aiming to send a “strategic signal” rather than fully disrupting global oil supplies passing through the waterway.

The post included a dynamic map showing sparse shipping activity in the strait. It shows some ships crossing the northern waters near Iran’s Larak Island.

According to data released earlier Tuesday by MarineTraffic, nine ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Monday.

Financial Associated Press also reported earlier this morning that Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow confirmed on Tuesday that, after negotiations with Iran and Oman, a Thai oil tanker that had been anchored in the Persian Gulf for several days successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is also reported that Iran further clarified the conditions for strait passage in a letter distributed to members of the International Maritime Organization on Tuesday. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated in the letter that “non-hostile ships” may pass through the Strait of Hormuz “in coordination with Iranian authorities.”

The letter states that as long as foreign ships do not assist in acts of aggression against Iran and comply with regulations set by the Iranian government, they are permitted to cross the strait. Countries that coordinate with Iranian authorities can enjoy safe passage. Iran also reiterated in the letter that ships related to the US and Israel, as well as other countries involved in attacks against Iran, do not qualify for non-hostile passage.

“Transit toll” rumors are rampant

It is worth noting that with Iran’s new strategy regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rumors have recently circulated that Iran is charging a “transit fee” for passage through the strait.

On Tuesday, multiple media outlets reported that Iran has begun charging up to $2 million for ships passing through the strait. Smith said that Kpler cannot verify reports of such transit fees at this time.

Previously, Iranian lawmaker Somayeh Rafiei proposed a bill last week requiring countries using the strait for shipping, energy transit, and food supplies to pay “tolls and taxes” as a return for Iran’s efforts to maintain regional security. Rafiei stated, “If the Strait of Hormuz is used as a safe passage for ships, energy transportation, and food supply, relevant countries will be required to pay transit fees and taxes to Iran.”

However, according to CCTV News, Iran’s embassy in India explicitly denied the claim of charging $2 million per passing ship on the 23rd local time, calling it “baseless.”

HormuzTracker, which provides data dashboards on disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipping, shows that about 2,500 ships are still stranded in the Persian Gulf, with another 400 waiting outside the strait.

Smith said that as tensions persist, the biggest surprise is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Meanwhile, the global market still “underestimates the imminent supply shortages and rising fuel prices” caused by this situation.

A report from JPMorgan strategists indicates that nearly 16 million barrels of crude oil are “effectively stranded” daily worldwide because transportation through the strait has largely halted. They estimate that by April, this gap could reach 10 million barrels per day.

Future developments have no historical template to follow

Regarding how the situation might develop next, Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a Tuesday comment that the conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz “has no ready historical template to follow.”

“For such a large-scale disruption affecting this strategic waterway, involving multiple state actors, military uncertainties, and global energy infrastructure, all these factors are intertwined in the same risk knot. There are currently no clear analogs,” Innes noted.

He added that the biggest variable is not crude oil itself. “The key is timing,” he said, and it’s currently impossible to precisely predict how long this oil shock will last.

Innes pointed out that the market can only estimate which oil can be rerouted, which can be substituted, and which cannot. The market can also gauge the upper limits of strategic petroleum reserve releases, idle capacity, transportation restrictions, and refinery alternatives.

Citing a recent JPMorgan report, Innes said that recent global measures to stabilize oil prices might help reduce the current daily supply gap from 16 million barrels to 10 million barrels by April. In this sense, “policymakers may be able to buffer the shock but cannot eliminate physical bottlenecks,” he stated.

(Article source: Caixin)