When talking about Bitcoin's value, many people's first reaction is: $1 million? That's outrageous.

Their logic is simple—the value storage market (gold + Bitcoin) is currently around $38 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for less than 4%. For Bitcoin to reach $1 million per coin, it would need to capture more than half of this market, which frankly sounds like pure fantasy.

But this calculation misses a critical variable: the market itself grows.

In 2004, when America's first gold ETF launched, the entire gold market was only $2.5 trillion—roughly Bitcoin's current size. Over the next twenty years, it grew to nearly $40 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 13%. Why? Because concerns about government debt, geopolitical risks, and currency devaluation have been rising continuously.

If this trend continues, the value storage market will expand to $121 trillion within ten years. By then, Bitcoin only needs to capture 17% of the market for one coin to be worth $1 million.

Going from 4% to 17% is still massive growth, but not extreme. Just a few years ago, the U.S. didn't have Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional allocation couldn't even fathom 1%. Now? From Harvard's endowment to Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund—everyone's entering. Volatility is declining, and 5% allocation ratios are already being discussed among professional investors.

Of course, no one can guarantee that the past twenty years of growth will simply repeat. But look at it the other way: if concerns about government debt truly reach crisis levels, this market could balloon much faster than anticipated.

So in my view, the base case is: the market continues expanding, and Bitcoin continues gaining market share. Combining both factors, prices would be far higher than today—hardly something crazy. $BTC