March 19 Market Overview: The US submits a 15-point ceasefire plan, oil prices plummet over 5% in a single day, while gold surges against the trend

The ceasefire plan revised the price logic for the day, but the war continues.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: Wall Street Finally Emerges from the Iran Shadow

On Wednesday, Wall Street experienced a rare breath of relief after four weeks.

The market was driven not by any earnings reports or Federal Reserve officials’ statements, but by a document—The U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran. China’s CCTV Channel 12 simultaneously reported that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire. The news caused the Dow futures to jump over 0.9%, oil prices to fall below critical levels, and market sentiment to shift direction before the opening.

Brent crude initially dropped over 4%, falling below $100 per barrel. Markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Asia-Pacific countries rose accordingly. US stock index futures gained more than 0.7%.

This rally was underpinned by the extreme suppression that had gripped the market in recent days. On Tuesday (March 24), the conflict reignited fears: the Dow fell 84 points to 46,124; the S&P 500 dropped 0.37% to close at 6,556; the Nasdaq declined 0.84%—the deepest decline, with tech and communication sectors dragging the most. On that day, energy, materials, and utilities were among the few sectors remaining green, while most others sank.

Compared to two days ago, the perspectives are entirely different. Monday’s market was lifted by Trump’s “productive talks” on Truth Social, which cleared out short positions; Wednesday’s was driven by a concrete plan, injecting more substantial optimism into the market.

On the individual stock level, tech stocks remain troubled. Oracle has retraced over 50% from its September high; ServiceNow fell nearly 6%; Salesforce dropped over 6.5%; Microsoft declined close to 3%. News of Amazon launching new AI tools continued to pressure the software sector—software ETFs (IGV) have fallen 23% this year, hitting a new low since February 25.

However, on March 25, the long-awaited rebound window finally opened.

In terms of sentiment indicators, the VIX volatility index was at 26.95 on Tuesday, down from over 30 at the outbreak of war, but still well above normal levels. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued rising to 4.39%, revealing another fissure caused by the war—historically, geopolitical risks tend to drive funds into Treasuries, lowering yields, but this Middle East conflict is doing the opposite. Market expectations for rate cuts this year have plummeted from 95% a month ago to about 5%, with nearly a 40% chance of at least one rate hike being priced in.

This is the real warning sign: the dual squeeze of oil prices and inflation expectations has almost eliminated the Fed’s room to cut rates.

Gold and Oil: A Crash and a Surge

On Wednesday, commodity markets staged a contrasting double act.

Oil: The Ceasefire Expectation Creates a Big Drop

WTI crude traded around $87.60 per barrel, down over 5%, while Brent crude also sharply declined back below $100. The catalyst was clear: news of the ceasefire plan prompted markets to pre-emptively price in an end to the war.

But there’s a logical trap worth noting: the Strait of Hormuz still isn’t fully open, and Iran has yet to officially respond to the plan. Yet, oil prices have already moved ahead of reality. In recent weeks, similar “front-running” occurred twice—on Monday, March 23, when Trump posted on social media, Brent plunged nearly 11% in a single day; then, when the conflict reignited on Tuesday, oil prices surged back. This tug-of-war indicates that market nerves are almost entirely tethered to a single Trump social media post.

Gold: Breaking the “War Must Drop” Logic

Spot gold surged nearly 3.7% on Wednesday, reaching about $4,563 per ounce; silver also jumped about 6.66%.

This movement defies intuition. Over the past few weeks, gold’s decline was driven by the chain: rising oil prices → inflation expectations → dollar strength → gold under pressure. But Wednesday’s oil price plunge broke this chain, the dollar weakened, and the bullish case for gold reactivated, with funds rushing in.

Deeper structural support lies in the fact that gold hit a record high of $5,600 per ounce earlier this year. Even after a correction, it remains in a high range, demonstrating more resilience than Bitcoin. Central banks continue to increase gold reserves, forming a bottom support across war cycles.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Hovering Around $70,000, but Bernstein Declares “Bottom Is In”

Bitcoin traded around $70,888 on Wednesday, up about 0.28% for the day, maintaining oscillation near the $70,000 mark.

The context behind this level is noteworthy: Bitcoin has retraced over 40% from its October 2022 high of about $126,000. Yet, in a generally bearish environment, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience—it has demonstrated some “safe haven” qualities in recent weeks, especially amid intense Middle East geopolitical risks, with funds flowing from traditional safe assets into Bitcoin.

On the institutional front, subtle shifts are occurring. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani released a report on Monday, explicitly stating, “We believe Bitcoin has bottomed and is moving upward,” maintaining a year-end target of $150,000. He noted that net ETF outflows at the start of the year have reversed; spot ETFs now hold about 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply; the “Digital Asset Treasury Strategy” holds about 3.6%, remaining a strong buyer.

The Fear & Greed Index recently hit 25 (extreme fear), Bitcoin’s market share is about 58.8%, and the total global crypto market cap is approximately $2.52 trillion.

Another noteworthy point is the recent plunge of Circle (CRCL) by about 20% on Tuesday, the largest single-day drop in history, triggered by a new draft of the “Stablecoin Clarity Act”—which reportedly could ban platforms from offering any form of “yield” on stablecoins, directly threatening Circle’s business model. Coinbase also fell over 8% the same day. Regulatory concerns are now a high-stakes sword hanging over the crypto market.

Summary for Today: The Ceasefire Plan Changed the Price Logic for the Day, but the War Continues

On March 25, the U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, and markets pre-emptively priced in good news:

US Stocks: After recent pressure, a rebound occurred, with futures up 0.7%-1%. The ceasefire expectation boosted risk appetite, but the damage in AI software sectors remains short-term.

Oil/Gold: WTI crude plunged over 5% to about $87.60 per barrel, Brent fell below $100; gold surged nearly 3.7% to about $4,563, breaking the inflation chain and providing relief for gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin held steady near $70,000. Bernstein’s optimistic outlook signals continued institutional accumulation, but regulatory clouds over stablecoins remain a new suppressor.

The market’s only concern now: Will Iran accept this 15-point plan?

If Tehran responds positively within this week, oil prices will accelerate below $80, and rate expectations will tilt toward cuts. Tech stocks battered by the war will see a fierce rebound. If Iran rejects or remains silent, Wednesday’s rally will be fleeting—as in previous instances—and the market will quickly revert to panic mode.

Having endured nearly a month of war, markets have developed an instinct for distinguishing “real signals” from “false signals.” A single document isn’t enough; the true turning point depends on the Strait of Hormuz’s ships resuming navigation.