CITIC Futures: Supply Concerns Persist, Tin Prices Show Strong Volatility

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-25T02:54:59+00:00

Tin supply issues remain the core factor affecting prices: Wa State supply disruptions have temporarily weakened, with focus on the subsequent process of production recovery; Indonesia's supply is expected to remain restricted in the near term due to RKAB approval impacts, and in the long term Indonesia may further strengthen tin export controls and extend the industrial chain downstream; the Democratic Republic of Congo's situation remains severe, with the Chinese Embassy in the DRC issuing multiple risk reminders, exacerbating supply concerns. Looking ahead, on the supply side, mining continues to tighten, tin concentrate processing fees remain at low levels, and refinery tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, consumption in new energy vehicles and other sectors continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild industrial chain inventory, tin ingot demand will continue to grow. Overall, supply risks remain elevated, combined with low inventory levels in the industrial chain, tin prices are expected to maintain strong support at the bottom. (CITIC Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-03-25 02:54:59

The supply issue of tin remains a key factor affecting prices: the disruption in Wa State supply has temporarily eased, with attention on the subsequent recovery in output; Indonesia’s short-term supply is expected to remain constrained due to RKAB approval issues. Additionally, in the long term, Indonesia may further tighten tin export controls, extending the industry chain downstream; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains severe, with the Chinese embassy in DRC repeatedly warning of local risks, which heightens supply concerns. Looking ahead, on the supply side, mine output continues to tighten, tin concentrate processing fees remain low, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild industry chain inventories, tin ingot demand is expected to keep growing. Overall, supply risks remain high, and combined with low industry chain inventories, tin prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom. (CITIC Futures)

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