Short-term strict discipline, T0 arbitrage as supplement, enjoy compounding fun with trend trading

The index looks okay, but there’s no clear main trend. Hotspots rotate so quickly that it’s like a fan—today’s gains could be tomorrow’s losses. chasing highs easily leads to being trapped.

In summary, in the current market, regardless of your style, you need to be more cautious and disciplined. Lower your expectations, focus on defense, and patiently wait for clearer signals from the market—that’s the best approach.

In this environment, whether you’re trend-following, short-term trading, or arbitraging, the core mindset should shift from “how to make more money” to “how to survive first.” Survive, and you’ll have the chance to catch the next big wave.

[Taogu Ba]

Personal trading yesterday—

1. Arbitrage with 3 ETFs, highest gain of 8% honey; 1 convertible bond arbitrage, 4.79% gain.

2. Kept an eye on Yunnan Energy Holdings for 14 days, intermittently watched ShaoNeng, continuously monitored Electric Light for smooth gains, and paid attention to China Oil at low levels for decent gains!

3. Mistake: Silver J, stopped loss in 1 second!

From a trend core perspective: defense first, then counterattack, wait for clear signals

For trend trading, now is not the time for aggressive attack but for building defenses and patiently waiting.

Use reasonable position allocation: split your capital into two parts.

1. Defensive side—attack if possible, retreat if necessary: allocate some funds to high-dividend, low-volatility assets like banks, utilities, coal, etc. These won’t aim for big gains but serve to resist declines and stabilize your account’s base.

2. Offensive side—be swift and decisive: use a small portion of your capital to follow main themes supported by policies and continuous capital inflows, such as hardware and software for computing, energy, and electricity. Remember, this is just “reconnaissance,” not “full-scale attack.”

Wait for right-side signals: don’t try to predict market bottoms or guess which sector will be the next main trend. A confirmed trend usually requires validation. A simple method is to wait until a sector shows strength for 2-3 days with increasing volume—this has a much higher success rate than preemptive positioning.

Pay attention to Hong Kong stocks linkage: Hong Kong stocks (especially the Hang Seng Tech Index) are more sensitive to international funds and sometimes react before A-shares. If Hong Kong stocks surge in the afternoon, it could be a leading signal that market sentiment in A-shares is recovering.

Short-term perspective: reduce frequency, strictly follow discipline, and focus on daily gains

Short-term trading is very difficult in this fast-rotating market and can easily lead to losses on both sides.

Control your trades, lower frequency: “One-day wonders” are common—buy today, sell tomorrow, and you might open lower the next day. The best practice is to reduce the number and frequency of trades, focus on 1-2 intraday strong supports, and lock in the strongest volume in the first 5 minutes of trading. Be patient for higher-confidence themes and stocks to buy low, rather than chasing every rise.

Strict stop-loss: The core of short-term trading is stop-loss. If the trade doesn’t go as expected and your mental state is affected, you must cut losses decisively—never hold on stubbornly. Under quantitative capital control, mistakes can lead to rapid declines, so stay disciplined.

Contrarian thinking: leverage market sentiment. When panic selling occurs (e.g., over 4,000 stocks falling) without substantial negative news, it’s often a good short-term rebound opportunity. Conversely, if the market opens sharply higher or surges rapidly without volume support, it’s likely a trap—consider reducing positions at the high. Fear-driven declines and low-volume rises are traps; if you’re not in, you won’t get caught.

Arbitrage mindset: focus on ETF T0, convertible bonds, and Hong Kong arbitrage

For those who enjoy T0 trading or arbitrage, the current volatile market is an advantage. Seize opportunities driven by news, with the mindset of main force pushing prices higher for profit-taking. Use intraday momentum to buy and sell on the same day, but avoid emotional interference.

Set clear price ranges: buy low, sell high, and profit steadily from volatility. Don’t blindly predict market direction—follow the market and capital flows.

Adhere to the “no change in position” principle: if manually trading T0, the goal is to lower the cost basis, not increase positions. Any buy-in during the day should be sold the same day, ensuring total holdings at close remain unchanged. Many fail because they turn T0 trading into passive adding.

Choose suitable stocks: not all are suitable for arbitrage. Select stocks with good liquidity (high daily turnover), active trading, strong intraday gains, and volume support for opening strong after news stimuli, driven by news and momentum.