Just now! Iran launches missiles! Crude oil shoots up sharply! Goldman Sachs issues urgent warning

Uncertainty in the Middle East remains high.

According to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency, on March 24, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement saying that the IDF detected Iran launching missiles at Israel, and the air defense systems began intercepting. International oil prices rose again, with Brent crude futures briefly surpassing $100 per barrel during the day.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs stated that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push up energy prices, which could slow economic growth and increase inflation. They raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months to 30%, and expect the GDP growth rate in the second half of the year to fall below the potential trend line of 1.25% to 1.75%.

Oil Prices Rise

During Asian trading hours on March 24, international oil prices rose again, with Brent crude futures briefly exceeding $100 per barrel. As of 10:50 Beijing time, the intraday increase was 3.83%, at $99.61 per barrel; WTI crude rose 3.45%, to $91.19 per barrel.

On the news front, according to Xinhua, the Israeli Defense Forces announced on the 24th that they detected Iran launching missiles at Israel, and the air defense systems began intercepting.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told the UK Parliament Liaison Committee on the 23rd that the UK must be prepared for the possibility that the Iran conflict will not “end quickly,” and called for negotiations to reach an agreement.

Sunak emphasized that from the start of the US and Israel’s military actions against Iran, he warned that the UK must be prepared for a prolonged conflict.

He said that on Iran, any UK action must have a legal basis and a well-considered, feasible plan. Therefore, the UK initially did not participate in strikes against Iran and later only engaged in “collective defense” actions. He stressed: “This is not our war; we will not be dragged into it.”

Sunak called for a quick resolution to the conflict and “to reach an agreement through negotiations, setting strict conditions for Iran, especially regarding nuclear weapons.”

U.S. President Donald Trump previously stated that the U.S. had engaged in “strong” talks with Iran, describing the dialogue as “perfect” and that an agreement outline had been formed.

On the 23rd, Trump told the media that the U.S. had held talks with Iranian leadership, “We are talking with what we consider the most respected ‘leader’.” According to Israeli media citing sources, the U.S. is in dialogue with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency denied on the 23rd that Larijani had met with U.S. officials, calling such reports a “big lie” and claiming they are attempts to create “political and social rifts” in Iran.

A Giant Oil Tanker Passes Through the Strait of Hormuz

Latest reports indicate that a giant oil tanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. If confirmed, this would be the first observed vessel to successfully transit the route and export Iraqi oil since the outbreak of Middle East hostilities.

According to Bloomberg’s tanker tracking data, the Omega Trader managed by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines is now located near Mumbai, India. Reports say the last signal from this ship was over ten days ago, inside the Persian Gulf.

Since the conflict erupted, only a few oil tankers have passed through the strait, making any signs of navigation highly market-sensitive. As the US-Israel-Iran war enters its fourth week, the route involved in one-fifth of global oil trade remains blocked, causing what is described as the “largest supply disruption in oil market history.”

Based on the destination of the aforementioned tanker, there may be Indian mediation behind the navigation.

Last week, reports indicated that, amid diplomatic contacts by India, the Iranian Navy escorted an Indian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. During the transit, Indian ships maintained radio contact with the Iranian Navy. Iran recorded the ship’s flag, name, departure and destination ports, and crew nationality (all Indian), guiding it along the agreed route.

This also confirms some analysts’ speculation that Iran is implementing a “traffic control system” in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing friendly ships to pass safely while others may face threats.

Navigation data also shows that in recent days, other tankers have departed from the Persian Gulf.

For example, the Al Ruwais, loaded with naphtha from the UAE in early March, is now heading toward Asia; Abu Dhabi-III, also loaded with fuel from Ruwais, arrived at India’s Vadinar port on Monday. Due to signal shutdowns during transit, only after leaving the Gulf can the ships’ passage be clearly confirmed.

Goldman Sachs’s Latest Warning

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team in their latest report pointed out that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push up energy prices, which could slow economic growth and increase inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. GDP growth rate in the second half of the year to fall below the potential trend line of 1.25% to 1.75%.

Goldman’s commodities strategists estimate that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until mid-April. This will delay the peak of Brent crude prices and slow their subsequent decline, as strategic reserves and other inventories need to be replenished.

Jan Hatzius noted that although the negative energy shock to the U.S. is relatively manageable, the economy still faces two major cyclical slowdown pressures in the second half:

“First, last summer’s fiscal measures—including middle-class tax cuts and full expensing of manufacturing investments—may lose their boost to growth in the second half,” Goldman said.

Second, the war has tightened financial conditions by about 60 basis points. Goldman estimates that if this continues, it could reduce economic growth in the second half by about 0.5 percentage points.

Goldman expects that under baseline energy price forecasts, the U.S. unemployment rate will rise to 4.6%; in a severely adverse scenario, it could reach 4.8% to 4.9%.

Notably, Goldman warns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment. “While AI’s impact on the labor market remains moderate for now, we expect this influence to intensify after 2026.”

In response to rising inflation expectations, the bond market has recently priced in rate hikes. However, Goldman believes the market has overreacted, maintaining a forecast of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with the risk of a recession possibly triggering more aggressive easing.

Goldman states: “Given the outlook for employment and core inflation, we still see a baseline scenario of two 25-basis-point rate cuts (in September and December) as reasonable.”