CITIC Futures: Downstream gradually resumes after the holiday, plastic prices fluctuate.

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-25T03:12:12+00:00

Current oil prices' phase-specific strength is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, triggering concerns over supply reduction. The loose crude oil supply pattern within the year remains difficult to reverse. Currently, we are in the stage where geopolitical premium fermentation is dominated by US-Iran tensions. Key signals for the end of subsequent rebounds include falsification of Iran supply concerns or confirmation of OPEC+ production increases again; otherwise, the support from geopolitical premium remains difficult to loosen. Commodity sentiment has warmed after the holiday, and capital flows have also boosted plastics. On the fundamental side, midstream plastic inventory pressure is not significant, and downstream gradually reopens after the 27th following the holiday, with demand-side switching between off-peak and peak seasons. There remain expectations for stimulus from macro consumption policies subsequently. (CITIC Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-03-25 03:12:12

The current strong phase of oil prices is mainly driven by concerns over supply reductions caused by tense geopolitical relations between the US and Iran. The loose supply pattern for crude oil this year is unlikely to change soon. Currently, the market remains in a phase where geopolitical risk premiums driven by the US-Iran situation are fermenting. Signals indicating an end to the rebound mainly depend on whether Iran’s supply concerns are disproven or OPEC+ confirms further production increases. Otherwise, the support from geopolitical risk premiums will remain firm. Commodity sentiment has improved after the holiday, and capital flows are also supporting plastics. Fundamentally, midstream plastic inventories are not under significant pressure, and downstream operations are gradually resuming after the 27th following the holiday, with demand shifting between peak and off-peak seasons. There are still expectations of macroeconomic consumption policies providing a boost. (CITIC Futures)

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