Oil Tanker Numbers Surge 21-Fold! Saudi Crude Oil Exports Shift to Red Sea, Still Unable to Completely Fill Strait of Hormuz Gap

AI Inquiry · The Red Sea oil tanker surge increases 21 times. How do pipeline bottlenecks affect alternative routes?

[Text / Observer Network Liu Bai]

As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, Saudi Arabia has quickly shifted some crude oil exports to the Red Sea route. According to Nikkei Asia on March 17, during the first half of March alone, the number of oil tankers loading at Saudi ports on the Red Sea increased by 21 times compared to the same period last year. However, analysis also points out that due to pipeline capacity and other factors, export capacity via the Red Sea still cannot fully fill the transportation gap left by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Maritime data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that on March 10, a total of 22 oil tankers completed loading at the Yanbu port on Saudi Arabia’s west coast in the Red Sea, the highest single-day record since 2020.

From the beginning of the year until the outbreak of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the number of tankers docking at this port each day hovered between 0 and 2. By March 13, the total number of tankers docked in March had reached 64, a 21-fold increase compared to last year.

Yanbu port is connected to the eastern oil-producing region of Saudi Arabia via a pipeline approximately 1,200 kilometers long, allowing oil transportation without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Connecting Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields and the western Yanbu port is an east-west oil pipeline.

European analysis firm Kpler data shows that starting the week of March 9, Saudi west coast crude oil exports reached 2.6 million barrels per day, the highest level since records began in 2013.

Saudi crude oil is usually exported mainly along the Persian Gulf coast, where the oil fields are located. US research firm Veson Nautical states that by 2025, about 80% of Saudi’s large oil tankers’ crude exports will go through the Persian Gulf, with only about 20% exported via east-west pipelines from the Red Sea.

After the US and Israel invaded Iran, the situation changed dramatically. Since March, the main port in the Persian Gulf, Ras Tanura, has only loaded 3 tankers.

Tokyo shipping broker Atlas CEO and President Hamazaki Sadao said, “Because ships cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz continuously, and with Yanbu’s export volume expanding, more shipowners are choosing to go to the Red Sea.”

But can the Red Sea route truly replace the Strait of Hormuz? It’s unlikely.

Analysis indicates that due to pipeline capacity and other constraints, the Red Sea route cannot fully compensate for the oil transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is reported that Saudi Arabia is increasing its east-west pipeline’s daily capacity from 5 million barrels to 7 million barrels.

JPMorgan Chase analysis states that 2 million barrels per day of capacity are already in use, and the remaining approximately 5 million barrels are expected to push Yanbu’s export operations to their limit.

Under current circumstances, about 14 million barrels of crude oil per day cannot be shipped out of the Persian Gulf, roughly 70% of the pre-closure throughput of the Strait of Hormuz.

It is noteworthy that transporting crude oil from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean’s Gulf of Aden bypasses the Strait of Hormuz but still requires passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Since the end of 2023, Houthi forces in Yemen have launched multiple attacks on commercial ships in this area.

Long before the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, major global shipping companies had rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal.

According to IMF ship monitoring platform PortWatch, from March 2 to 8, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw an average of 33 ships passing daily, unchanged from the same period last year but still below the 73 ships per day in 2023.

Waiting ships entering the Suez Canal (IC Photo)

Despite the risks of maritime navigation in the Middle East, demand for shipping in the region has surged, causing freight rates at Yanbu port to skyrocket.

Anders Lund of Danish ship brokerage MB said, “The daily rental rate for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) departing from Yanbu is about $450,000, more than 10 times the average of around $42,000 from 2023 to 2025.”

George Morris, an analyst at UK research firm Vortexa, said that compared to alternative routes to Asia via the Gulf of Mexico or West Africa, shipping costs from the Middle East are higher. This trend reflects both high demand for ships and the high risks involved in navigation.

The US and Israel’s military actions against Iran are ongoing. On the 13th, the US attacked Iran’s main oil export hub, Kharg Island. As the conflict escalates, market concerns over supply risks intensify.

On the 16th, the international benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures briefly surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in a week.

Currently, there has been no confirmed major damage to the loading and storage facilities at Kharg Island, and oil supplies have not been immediately interrupted. However, last weekend, reports indicated that the UAE’s main oil export hub, Fujairah Port, was attacked by drones.

Market fears are growing that attacks on export hubs in Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could expand, further weakening export capacity. Meanwhile, transporting crude oil via the Red Sea not only faces high oil prices but also incurs high freight costs.

The New York Times reported on the 16th that Iran is disrupting the production and export of pro-US Gulf oil-producing countries through drone attacks and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy corridor, to pressure the US into withdrawing. This has caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel. If sustained, the US could face significant economic consequences.

Recently, Trump has repeatedly pressured allies to send warships to escort ships through the strait, revealing his dilemma.

“There’s no plan at all for the Strait of Hormuz,” Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “I can’t detail how Iran is blocking the strait, but one thing’s for sure: Trump currently doesn’t know how to safely reopen it.”

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