Let's talk about gold.


Gold has fallen from around 5400 at the end of February this year to a low of 4098, a decline of over 24%. In late March, it experienced a sharp crash (a record weekly drop), and now the price is rapidly recovering, showing a "roller coaster" pattern. I mentioned during a live broadcast that as long as it falls below the 5000 level, you can freely short it. The lowest reached 4098, which is a very dramatic decline for gold. Plus, there are still people buying gold above 5000...
Many people can't understand the underlying logic. The rapid decline in gold this round is mainly due to:
1. The Fed's hawkish policy suddenly changing, completely destroying the expectation of rate cuts
2. Strong US dollar + soaring US Treasury yields
3. Middle East conflict (US-Iran war) causing crude oil prices to surge
4. Long leverage stacking, mainly liquidations
These events caused a major drop in the gold market, liquidating many long positions.
From the current market perspective, the Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates with one small rate cut expected. Gold is expected to fluctuate between 4300 and 4800. However, I think once it approaches 4000 again, it can be gradually bought. The Fed's policy is the biggest "catalyst for gold bears."
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Lost190,000Yuanvip
· 4h ago
Let's talk about gold.
Gold has fallen from around 5400 at the end of February this year to a low of 4098, a decline of over 24%. It experienced a sharp crash in late March (a record weekly drop), and now the price is rapidly recovering, showing a "roller coaster" pattern. During a previous live broadcast, I mentioned that as long as it falls below the 5000 level, you can freely short it. The lowest reached 4098, which is a very exaggerated decline for gold. Plus, there are still people buying gold above 5000...
Many people can't understand the underlying logic. The rapid decline in gold this round is mainly due to:
1. The Fed's hawkish policy suddenly changing, completely destroying the rate cut expectations
2. Strong US dollar + soaring US Treasury yields
3. Middle East conflict (US-Iran war) causing crude oil prices to surge
4. Long leverage piling up, mainly liquidations
These events caused a major drop in the gold market, liquidating many long positions.
Looking at the current market, the Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates with one small rate cut expected. Gold will likely fluctuate between 4300 and 4800. However, I think once it approaches 4000 again, it can be gradually bought. The Fed's policy is the biggest "bearish catalyst" for gold.
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